Etla: Emissions decreased rapidly in Finland in 2023, but the pace will be slower in the future

Finland Greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 11 percent in 2023, says the Finnish Economic Research Institute (Etla).

Etla characterizes the decrease in emissions as strong. According to it, the reduction has been particularly concentrated in energy production, where the use of fossil fuels has decreased and been replaced by emission-free energy production.

“The commissioning of the Olkiluoto 3 reactor as well as the additional construction of wind power and the increased production of hydropower contributed to the decrease in emissions. Traffic emissions also decreased,” says Etla.

In addition, the use of coal and peat has decreased. Etla expects to end the use of coal completely within the 2020s.

Etlan published by emission forecast according to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will continue in Finland in the future, but at a slower rate.

The research institute predicts that emissions will decrease by 3.4 percent on average by 2028. However, the land use sector is not included in the calculation.

In the current decade, the focus of greenhouse gas emissions is shifting to the agriculture, transport and storage industries, estimates the Etla researcher who prepared the emission forecast Ville Kaitila in the bulletin.

According to him, the energy supply industry was the most significant source of emissions in 2022. Since then, the reduction in emissions has been the fastest in the industry, because the use of fossil fuels has decreased and replaced by emission-free production.

“At the end of the 2020s, the agriculture, transportation and storage sectors will become our biggest sources of emissions,” says Katila in the announcement.

Come on says that Finland’s carbon neutrality development increased last year to its best level since 2012. According to Etla, the growth of carbon sinks in forest land as a result of the reduction in logging last year influenced the development.

However, according to Etla, Finland has not become more carbon neutral in the long term, because the carbon sink of forest land has always decreased alongside the decrease in emissions.

According to the goal recorded in the Climate Act, Finland should be carbon neutral by 2035. In order to achieve the goal, greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced not only in other sectors but also in the land use sector, Etla states.

The land use sector includes forest land, cropland, grasslands, wetlands, built-up areas and wood products.

The land use sector the carbon sink has clearly decreased since 2013, Etla says.

However, in 2018, 2021 and 2022 it was a moderately significant emission source. In 2023, the sector returned to being a carbon sink again, albeit a relatively small one.

According to Etla’s emissions forecast, the land use sector may become a source of emissions again. The sector’s statistics are heavily influenced by changes in felling volumes through the carbon sinks of forests. Therefore, fluctuations in the statistics can be very large on a yearly basis.

“Forests themselves have continued to be an emission sink every year, only much smaller than before,” says Etla in her forecast.

According to the LULUCF regulation of the EU’s climate policy, the carbon sink of Finland’s land use sector should be 17.8 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2030.

This means that the carbon sink of the land use sector should return to the 2014 level.