Experts say that Vietnamese goods are unlikely to be subject to separate tariffs by the US, but the risk of trade defense investigations increases, along with the deficit problem.
In 2024, the US will continue to be Vietnam’s largest export market with a turnover of goods reaching 119.6 billion USD, an increase of more than 23% over the same period in 2023, according to the General Statistics Office. The main products coming here include shoes, wooden furniture, machinery and optical equipment.
Turnover to the world’s largest economy accounted for nearly 30% of total export value last year, at 405.53 billion USD. To date, the US is the second largest trading partner, while Vietnam is the country’s 8th largest trading partner.
In 2025, Vietnam’s most important market is more difficult to predict, when President-elect Donald Trump will officially take office on January 20. He once threatened to increase tariffs on imported goods from China, Mexico, Canada, and the whole world by 10-20% and was very concerned about the US’s large trade deficit with its partners.
So far, some experts remain optimistic that Vietnam is unlikely to face a decision to impose separate tariffs but must be wary of a deficit with the US.
“It is unlikely that Mr. Trump will impose direct tariffs on Vietnamese goods, but the large trade deficit after China and Mexico is a point to be cautious,” said Mr. Kyle Freeman, Head of the company’s international business consulting department. Dezan Shira & Associates forecast at the conference “New US policy: Impacts on trade and investment” taking place in Ho Chi Minh City on the morning of January 8.
Forecasting tariff scenarios. In particular, the possibility and impact of exporting Vietnamese goods to the US by Dezan Shira & Associates; VnDirect’s 2025 general export growth forecast. Graphics: Telecommunications
Proposing four scenarios for Mr. Trump’s tax policy, Mr. Kyle Freeman said that the most likely possibility is that taxes on Chinese, Mexican and Canadian goods increase. “We still have more opportunities to export more to the US,” he commented.
According to 3 scenarios of VnDirect Securities Company, Vietnam’s exports in 2025 will still increase by about 8% if the US increases tariffs on Chinese goods by 60% and 10-20% in general. Growth could be higher than this if only 60% tax on Chinese goods was imposed. On the contrary, it will be 8% lower when there are additional general tax conditions and Vietnamese goods are subject to additional taxes.
In analysis released last month, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy VnDirect, said that Vietnam can avoid harsh tariff policies. However, the risk of a trade defense investigation may increase due to the relatively high trade surplus. In the first 11 months of 2024, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US was 95.4 billion USD, an increase of 26.7%.
According to Dr. Huynh The Du, lecturer at Indiana University (USA), member of the Vietnam Innovation Institute, Mr. Trump can implement or reduce the level of commitments in his election platform after taking office. But his general view will remain consistent, which is to promote bilateral negotiations and build allies.
In an unpredictable context, whether Vietnamese goods will maintain their advantage or be subject to higher taxes still requires vigilance. “The trade deficit is very high and how to solve this problem is what Vietnam needs to pay attention to,” he said.
There are still some solutions to limit risks for Vietnamese goods to the US this year, according to experts. “Selling goods through the US is something we still do, but there needs to be more combined policies to both sell and increase investment cooperation in the US, something they are very interested in,” Dr. Huynh The Du recommended.
At the same time, with the risk of US-China trade tensions reshaping the global value chain, Vietnam needs to be careful to avoid becoming a transit point for Chinese goods to the US.
In macro management, Mr. Du pointed out three other pressures that officials need to pay attention to, including: exchange rates; on the US Treasury Department’s “watch list” for currency manipulation and has not been recognized by the country as a market economy.
President of the American Food Industry Association (AFI) Bob Bauer advised Vietnam to increase transparency about ingredients. “Vietnam needs to affirm the value of its origin and product origin more,” he said. According to this expert, businesses should focus on things within their control such as quality, food safety, production and transportation costs to maintain competitiveness.
Cat Lai Port, Thu Duc City in 2021. Photo: Quynh Tran
Not only are there challenges, Vietnam also has new trade opportunities, thanks to Mr. Trump’s other executive policies. In last month’s forum, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, Member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council pointed out plans to reduce corporate taxes and increase investment in infrastructure and energy. , Mr. Trump’s military can stimulate investment and consumption in the US, increasing demand for goods and services exported from Vietnam.
In addition, the intention to relax liquefied gas (LNG) exports also opens up more LNG import options for Vietnam. Or like reducing regulations on greening, it is also favorable for Vietnamese businesses to have a timely enough roadmap to meet the requirements of sustainable development.
Mr. Kevin Morgan, Chairman of the Board of Directors, US-Vietnam Business Council, said that Vietnam will certainly be affected by the new trade policy of the new US administration. To date, no one knows exactly what that policy in general and the new tariffs will be.
“But I think it’s better to prepare and plan for many different options to continue doing business in the US market,” he said.