The Merval falls almost 2% and bonds also suffer pressure

Despite having started the year on the right foot, Argentine assets cannot escape the volatility of global markets this Wednesday and both stocks and bonds are trading in the red. The former are hit by a fall, although slight after midday, in the main Wall Street indices. For its part, Sovereign securities deepen their declines due to the mix of international bad mood and coupon cutting in the case of the bonds that entered the exchange that must be paid tomorrow by the National Treasury.

International stock markets opened this Wednesday with volatility after In the previous one, the 10-year American Treasury rate will present a new rise. In that context, Argentine actions that are listed on Wall Street operate with falls of more than 5%, in the case of Edenor.

The bad global climate hits the Merval index, which falls 1.8% after having accumulated a 10% increase in the first rounds of 2025. In the City they talk about healthy profit taking, after the rally that Argentine stocks had during last year was sustained in the first days of January. Edenor is also the company that falls the most in the local market. However, most stocks, although moving in negative territory, maintain the gains they accumulated this month.

“Last year, the Merval achieved its highest return since 2003, and this occurred in a context of falling activity levels. That the GDP and the stock index go in the opposite direction is not usual since, since From 1991 to 2023, 80% of the time they have moved in the same direction And, since then, it has never happened that both variables go in the opposite direction for two consecutive years, with the exception of the period. 2023-24”, they highlighted in Delphos. At the same time, they advanced: “If the change in the economic regime materializes in growth in activity, it could be a reason to sustain the Merval trend, even if at a slower pace.”

The Government faces the payment of bond maturities this Thursday sovereigns in dollars largest of the year for about US$ 4,341 million, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CPO). These payments correspond to bonds restructured in 2020 by former Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán, and include both capital and interest.

The securities that pay coupon are the Bonares with Argentine law (AL29, AL30, AL35, AL38 and AL41) and the Globales -with foreign law-, denominated in dollars (GD29, GD30, GD35, GD38 and GD41) and in euros (GE29 , GE30, GE35, GE38, GE41 and GE46). The coupon cut of these bonds is what mainly affects the price in advance of the payment that will be made on Thursday.

Thus, the country risk that had dropped to 561 units on Tuesday, in a day that was marked by the confusion caused by a calculation error in the index prepared by JP Morgan, returns to 563 points. City operators indicated that, in the days prior to coupon payments, this indicator falls slightly and then rises again when the operation is carried out and reaches a “normalized” value in the following days.