Cetes remain a safe and attractive option this year: analysts

In 2025, high volatility will continue for financial assets such as the peso, fibers and Mexican stocks, but Cetes will continue to shine as a safe and attractive option, predict international asset management firms.

Ramsé Gutiérrez, co-director of investments at Franklin Templeton México, explained that in the debt market, returns have been marked by the uneven pace of the decline in interest rates. In the United States, although the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its cycle of cuts, long-term bonds barely achieved a return of 23.6 percent in pesos during 2024, that is, only the return of the appreciation of the dollar.

In Mexico, the 28-day Cetes were the most prominent, offering 11.5 percent in pesos with minimal risk, while long-term bonds (4.2 percent yield in 2024) and Udibonos (a loss of 0.6 percent) presented mediocre returns, due to caution about the speed of rate cuts by Banco de México (BdeM).

Cetes will continue to shine as a safe and attractive option, and long-term bonds offer an opportunity for those with a long-term investment horizon.Gutiérrez said.

In fact, there is a product called Cetesdirecto, which has a free Internet platform so that anyone can invest in government securities without the intermediation of banks, brokerage houses or other institutions. You only need to have on hand the number of a debit account belonging to a bank with operations in Mexico of which you are the owner, RFC, INE and CURP.

2024 will be remembered as a year of extremes between global and local financial markets. On the one hand, the big winners were safe haven assets such as gold, driven by the high uncertainty regarding the United States presidential election, the restrictive policies that are looming and other global geopolitical conflicts. Foreign stocks also stood out.

Mexican assets faced very adverse conditions. Mexican stocks and fibers led the falls, with 11 and 12 percent, respectively, hit by both global uncertainty and local constitutional reforms. Additionally, the peso suffered its fourth worst year since it became a free-floating currency, ranking as the third worst currency in the world, only behind the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble.

Karina Ávila, Banamex analyst, highlighted that the instruments managed to end with a positive performance despite the impact they had on their valuation due to the increase in their rates in 2024, since said impact could be offset by the coupon payment of said instruments. .

By 2025, they must recover part of that valuation with the monetary policy movements by the Bank of Mexico.