Positive lock in Europe; There is no trading on Wall Street today

Trading Overview: Current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations

18:45

European stock markets closed in the green. The FTSE rose 0.8%, KAC added 0.5%, and DAX closed close to the base levels.

The price of Bitcoin is trading in volatility and currently stands at $94,000 per unit. The ether currency stands at 3.3 thousand dollars.

16:55

Wall Street is closed for trading today on the occasion of a national memorial day for the 39th President of the United States, Jimmy Carter.

16:20

Amazon , The technology and online retail giant has become a significant player in the field of advertising in recent years. Many companies pay significant amounts to appear on the company’s website.

Now the company announces that it is selling its ad technology to companies interested in it. The offer, which Amazon calls “Amazon Retail Ad Service” will allow retail companies to display customized advertisements on the homepage, search and product pages.

According to the CNBC network, the move is designed to increase advertising revenues, which in the last quarter stood at $14.3 billion, in line with market expectations, but less than the revenues presented by Google and Facebook.

16:00

The trend in Europe has become positive. The DAX adds about 0.1%, the FTSE increases by 0.7% and the KAC increases by 0.6%.

Louis Vuitton French, andDeutsche Bank Germany leads the Stoxx 50 index, which rises by 0.3%. While the German car manufacturer BMW Loses 1.1%.

Philippe Ferrera, a senior executive at the financial consulting company Kepler Cheuvreux told CNBC that “2025 is expected to be unstable, but the general trend will remain positive.”

Ferrera said that already in the first two weeks of 2025 we saw an example of the expected upheavals this year in the markets of the world. And he explained that pressure from the American market, given by uncertainty regarding economic actions that President-elect Trump will take, as well as political instability in European countries, are among the causes of the expected unrest in the markets.

In the US debt market, government bond yields are stable. The 10-year yield stands at 4.66% and the two-year yield stands at 4.26%.

14:56

The price of Bitcoin is again trading in volatility and now stands at $93,000.

Lombard Odair explain that despite the highs recorded by Bitcoin, the risk and volatility of investing in it must not be ignored:

“Bitcoin first traded above $100,000 in 2024, yielding an annualized return of approximately 120%. Against this background, the question arises as to what factors investors should consider when deciding whether to include Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in their investment portfolio. Since its launch, Bitcoin and other digital currencies have sparked debate between supporters and critics about their nature and value Because cryptocurrencies do not meet the characteristics of fiat currency even though they can be used as a means of payment – an opinion that is supported by many central banks – the debate also continues regarding the question of their status as financial assets, while examining their ability to store value or be used for practical needs.

“In our opinion, although cryptocurrencies are a proven investment vehicle with increasing use and increasing capital, they are not traditional assets or storage vehicles comparable to the assets included in our strategic asset allocation. Furthermore, the volatility and troughs (down from peak prices in certain time periods) of cryptocurrencies far exceeds any other financial asset. However, we do not include them in our asset allocation. For investors who choose to hold cryptocurrencies in their portfolio, we offer a general guide to managing the impact of the high volatility and significant risks that can occur during any holding period.

“Since mid-2010, Bitcoin has produced an average annual return of 170%, with an annual volatility of 109%, figures that far exceed the volatility of traditional financial assets. Also, Bitcoin’s Sharpe Index – which measures return relative to risk – is higher than other assets. With However, what really sets Bitcoin apart is its extreme volatility, which completely changes the risk profile of Portfolios even for relatively small allocations.For example, an allocation of 2% Bitcoin in a ‘balanced’ portfolio doubles the overall volatility of the portfolio, while an allocation of 10% means that the volatility is doubled and the risk is concentrated in Bitcoin.

“Finally, the risks also include security problems in digital wallets and the use of crypto for criminal activities such as money laundering and illegal trading. Although the extent of illegal activity varies according to estimates, it is an important dimension that requires careful consideration by investors.

“Regarding predictions for the year 2025, in the event that Bitcoin falls below $100,000, the nearest support levels are $88,740 and $78,705. In the event of an increase, the resistance levels are $102,145 and $106,975. Furthermore, it is possible that the re-election of Trump , along with crypto-supporting subscriptions, be encouraged US institutional frameworks to support wider use of Bitcoin. Also, low interest rates may support prices, but volatility and risks are expected to continue to be a key element in investment decisions.”

13:00

The mixed trend in Europe continues. The DAX is down 0.1%, the FTSE is up 0.5% and the KAC is up 0.4%.

stock Alot The dual, which was one of the strongest stocks on the local stock exchange in 2024, continues the positive trend. The company announced that it signed an agreement with the Czech telecommunications company O2 for the supply of cyber protection solutions. The scope of the contract was not disclosed, but the company stated that the payment would be monthly and would generate recurring revenue.

11:07

Cantor Fitzgerald Bank started surveying three stocks in the field of cyber security, all three related to Israel. The recommendation on a share Sentinel One under the management of founder Tomer Weingarten, is “outperform” with a target price of $30, a 33% premium to the stock price in New York. The recommendation on Veronis Systems under the management of founder Yikki Faytelson, is “outperform” with a target price of $60, a 35.6% premium. Whereas the recommendation on Check point managed by Nadav Zafarir, is “neutral” with a target price of $200, a 9.2% premium. The bank believes that Sentinel One offers added value and may benefit from the famous failure of the competitor Crowdstrike, and express fear of a slowdown in growth at Check Point, but mention its stable free flow.

10:30

The trading day in Europe is hourly in a mixed trend. Dax is down 0.2%, FTSE is up 0.4% and the KAC is trading around base levels.

08:55

This morning in Asia, the main indices are trading in a mixed trend. The Nikkei is down 0.9%, the Hang Seng is off 0.3%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is off 0.5% and the Kospi index is trading around base levels.

There will be no trading in the USA today on the occasion of a national memorial day declared following the death of the 39th President of the USA, Jimmy Carter. Trading in the debt market will take place but will end early.

Last night (Wed) on Wall Street, trading closed with a mixed trend but with minor changes. The Nasdaq was down 0.1%, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. The indices remained flat most of the day, after a week of mixed economic data and investors are now eagerly awaiting the December jobs report to be released on friday

Quantum computing stocks plunged last night. IonQ fell by 39%, D-Wave by 36% and Regetti also by over 40%. This is after yesterday, the CEO and founder of Nvidia Jensen Huang gave a statement during the CES technology product conference in Las Vegas regarding the industry, which clouded the shares of the quantum companies. When asked how mature the technology is and when we can use a fast quantum computer with satisfactory performance, Huang replied that “Within 15 years is an optimistic estimate, 30 years is the pessimistic estimate, and the average probably revolves around 20 years.”

Another standout for negative stock solaredge which fell 15% last night after Citi analysts downgraded the stock to “sell”. At Citi, they express concern about the company’s liquidity, challenging profit forecasts and intense competition. Citi gives the stock a target price of only $9, about 40% less than its current price. According to the analysts, the downgrade reflects broader problems that characterize the home solar energy sector, on which Citi remains cautious due to its high dependence on incentives and relatively weak financial flexibility. “The company’s operating expenses remain stubbornly high, despite restructuring announcements, particularly relative to demand,” Citi’s report said.

The analysts add that price reductions made by the company recently failed to increase its market share, according to data from applications that were reviewed. Citi emphasizes that large-scale energy companies are in a better position, thanks to reasonable profit forecasts, strong balance sheets and strong demand from sectors such as data centers and artificial intelligence. However, Solaredge’s limited liquidity and competitive pressures make it more vulnerable in the current market environment.

In the US debt market, government bond yields continued to climb. The 10-year yield this morning stands at 4.66% and the two-year yield stands at 4.26%.

● What is behind the historical rise in US bond yields

Ronan Menachem, Chief Markets Economist at Mizrachi Tefahot explains what is behind the rise in yields in the US in recent times: “The maturity yield on the 10-year bond was only 4.15% a month ago and has now jumped to close to 4.7%. In this period of time, the redemption yield on the two-year bond increased less: from 4.1% to 4.25%. Because of this, the difference in redemption yields between the two bonds, which was negligible, jumped to 0.45%. This may indicate a real cooling in capital market expectations for further interest rate cuts this year. The Federal Bank itself contributed to this when it changed its interest rate forecast for 2025 from four reductions at a cumulative rate of one percent to two reductions at a cumulative rate of half a percent. Since then, the market’s expectations for an interest rate cut have decreased even more and are now pricing in a probability of only 2/3 that the interest rate will drop by 1/4 or 1/2 percent by the end of the year.

Menachem emphasizes that there are several reasons for this: “First, the fear that a policy that supports local growth in the form of infusions and tax reductions for households and companies will increase the deficit and debt and prevent the Fed from lowering interest rates. This means, among other things, a lot of fundraising and pressure on the bond market. Second, a continued annual increase of 4-5 percent in the prices of rent and services in the consumer price index, which will make it difficult for inflation to converge to the target level of 2 percent. In addition, data on the labor market and growth in the United States are again surprisingly positive, reducing the urgency to lower interest rates.

In the macro sector, last night (Wed), the minutes of the last Fed meeting from two weeks ago, in which it was decided to lower interest rates, were published. At the December meeting, Fed officials expressed concern about inflation and the possible impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, leading them to plan to take a slower rate-cutting approach due to the uncertainty.

Although Trump was not mentioned by name, the minutes included at least four references to the possible impact of changes in immigration and trade policy on the American economy.
Since Trump’s election victory in November, he has signaled intentions to impose aggressive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada as well as other US trading partners. He also plans to promote reduced regulation and mass deportations of immigrants.

However, the extent of the actions Trump will take and the precise manner in which they will be implemented create significant uncertainty about the future, leading members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to recommend a cautious approach. “The vast majority of the participants believed that the risks to the upside in the inflation forecast have increased,” the minutes stated. “As factors for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected inflation data and the potential effects of changes in trade and immigration policies.”

FOMC members voted to cut interest rates to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, but reduced expectations for further cuts in 2025 to just two, compared to four in the previous estimate in September. Since September, the Fed has cut interest rates by a full percentage point, and the market expects only one or two more cuts this year.

Participants noted that inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target, while consumer spending continues to be strong, the labor market is stable, and economic activity continues to expand at a higher than average rate through 2024.

According to the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, Jerome Powell, the situation is similar to “driving on a foggy night or entering a dark room full of furniture – just slow down.” This statement reflects the cautious approach taken by the participants, who noted that “the current high uncertainty warrants a gradual approach when The committee is moving towards a neutral policy.”

Fed forecasts point to two more interest rate cuts in 2026 and possibly one or two more after that, with long-term interest rates expected to fall to 3%. Officials emphasized that future policy decisions depend on data developments, and will not take place according to a predetermined schedule.

Alex Zebzinski, Chief Economist at the Meitav Investment House, noted in his review that the interest rate reductions in the world have begun to show: “In the survey by the American CBS, there was a decrease in the weight of the businesses that answered that the high interest rate creates difficulty for activity. Fewer businesses report damage to profitability, difficulty in making new investments or the ability to service existing debts. At the same time, there has recently been a significant increase in car sales. This area is usually highly sensitive to interest rates. In the real estate market, the effect of the interest rate cut is still moderate. Sales of existing houses (Existing & Pending) have increased in recent months. In Europe, the effects of the interest rate cut are reflected in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) quarterly credit survey.”

This morning the consumer price index in China was published, which remained unchanged in December at a monthly rate, in accordance with early forecasts. At an annual rate, inflation stood at 2.3%- compared to the early expectation of 2.4%-.