In an atypical day for international markets, The Government confirmed the payment of the mega maturity of US$ 4.4 billion to debt holders who entered into the Martín Guzmán exchange in 2020. The fixed income market will operate half a wheel on Wall Street, due to a holiday that was declared in the United States for the funeral of the former president of that country, Jimmy Carter.
In that context, Argentine securities began the day on the rise, once the news of the coupon payment was confirmed. Increases of between 0.30 to 0.70% are seen, with more growth in longer-term securities.
Although the cancellation of the debt was discounted in the prices of the market, the confirmation of this operation encouraged some investors. “On Wednesday local bonds reflected falls in the markets listed dirty (dirty) for logical reasons of coupon cutting, however, abroad and with quotes clean (clean), There were also more marked falls in the shortest part of the curve: GD30 –2.82%. Part of a typical speculation with payment”they indicated before the start of the round in Outlier.
The payment of this maturity clears up some doubts about the sustainability of the Argentine debt, in a year full of external commitments. “For this year we expect a much higher sovereign curve influenced by the international context, after years of almost total decoupling. It will be crucial to closely monitor how the external front evolves, which has not started favorably this year. At the local level, The key factor to monitor will be the dynamics of reserve accumulationwhere a REPO has already been agreed upon that reinforces optimism regarding Argentina’s return to international markets,” they said in Delphi.
“The sovereign curve in dollars now presents a positive slope, aligning itself with emerging markets with better ratings and showing lower perception of short-term non-payment risk. This change reflects optimism about Argentina’s ability to meet maturities in dollars. With macroeconomic stability and reserve accumulation as the axis for 2025, the recent REPO reinforces confidence in access to international markets,” they added.
In this line, Mateo Reschini, head of research Injection: “Going forward, the debt has to continue improving because Argentina’s expectations will continue to improve and also that with the ability to ‘roll’ (debt renewal) this is not so complicated. So I see that they will really be able to do it.”
Without the external impulse, the Buenos Aires stock market is moving upwards, after having registered falls in the previous day. The Merval recovers 1.2% and accumulates gains of more than 11% in hard currency this month. Banks and energy companies are the papers that rose the most this Thursday, with the exception of Edenor, which sank more than 9% in the previous one and is now recovering.