Trump cannot impose tariffs and lower inflation

In the review of the T-MEC, Mexico is going to move forwardas it has economic advantages, including the success of the trade agreement, as well as advances in security and migration, said Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE).

You cannot take measures to decouple from China and at the same time be protectionist with Mexico and put at risk the entire industrial complex that we have built for more than 40 years between Mexico and the United States.said the official when participating in the 2025 Economic Perspectives Seminar, organized by the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM).

We will find (the way out) because we have the structural advantageshighlighted Ebrard, after commenting that although Donald Trump was already president, in his new period his political vision is different.

He highlighted that as of January 20, when Trump takes office as president, the review of the T-MEC will begin and it is necessary to understand that we are entering a new erasince in the past the point of discussion with Trump was the renegotiation of NAFTA, which he considered as the worst trade deal in history.

He commented that it is not possible for the United States to have low inflation if it maintains protectionism against Mexico and China. Structurally it is not possible and this is a central advantage.

What is different is that there is a consensus in the United States regarding protectionism and priority in relation to China, he explained.

It is no longer just the design of a policy of an administration that is entering, it is a central political consensus that will direct the destiny of the economy on a global scale.

He commented that Mexico’s first structural advantage is the T-MEC, a trade agreement that was signed by Trump, which has been a success for the United States, as it generates 3.1 million dollars per minute and regional trade adds 1.8 trillion dollars to the anus.

He added that the US automotive industry has survived because operations in national territory have given it competitiveness. He mentioned that Mexico is going to enter a scenario of greater rivalry for the main assemblers of the neighboring country to the north – Stellantis, Ford and General Motors – where any alteration in costs runs the risk of becoming a disadvantage for the United States.

He highlighted that there are two non-economic factors that will be key in the T-MEC review process: security and migration, because in that sense the neighboring country to the north needs Mexico.

In the first, Ebrard Casaubón highlighted that the number of deaths in the United States from fentanyl has decreased, according to official data from that country. In terms of security on this issue, fortunately, it is improvingsaid.

He noted that Mexico will ask that the illegal importation of weapons be controlled. He recalled that between 2018 and 2024, more than 3,603 weapons were confiscated on the United States border and added that 85 percent of the Sinaloa cartel’s weapons were purchased in the United States.

In migration, he pointed out that the flow of people to the United States has been reduced by 75 percent from the highest peak in November 2023 to January 2024.

We are going to have a process where many things can happen in the short term, We don’t have to get so distracted, because essentially what we have to do is build for the next administration as we already did, six years agohe concluded.