Dragon Capital believes that gold performs worse than stocks, real estate and even corporate bonds when price fluctuations are difficult to predict.
During today’s investor conference, Dragon Capital announced a performance evaluation table of investment channels with a maximum score of 5. This fund believes that gold has poor performance compared to stocks, real estate and bonds. businesses, only reaching 2-2.5 points.
The above argument was made by experts because precious metal price fluctuations are difficult to predict and the actual investment performance is not as high as many people think. Besides, in terms of speculation, gold is limited by the strict supervision of the State Bank to stabilize exchange rates.
In a recent meeting, the State Bank said it would continue to consider operating and managing the gold market. This agency has submitted to the Government a summary and assessment of Decree 24 in the direction of ensuring that the State can still manage the market, but also ensure the rights of business people and the legitimate needs of people to buy, sell and store. .
In the latest forecast, Goldman Sachs no longer believes that the price of gold can reach 3,000 USD an ounce by the end of this year, but moved to mid-2026. The group of experts said that the reduction of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Slowing interest rates could drag down demand for gold ETFs.
Mr. Le Anh Tuan, Director of Dragon Capital Investment Division, said he himself only holds 2% of the portfolio in this channel. He agreed that there were periods when gold prices increased very strongly. However, if you spend long term in a time frame of 10, 20, 30 or more than 50 years, reality shows that precious metals do not produce superior performance compared to other investment channels.
Previously, Dragon Capital published statistics from data in the period 2001-2022 showing that gold is the investment channel with the second lowest rate of return, about 9% a year, only slightly better than foreign currency. At many times, domestic gold prices have large differences and opposite movements compared to the world market. On the other hand, gold investment can only record capital gain – the difference between the selling price and the initial purchase price, without generating a stable profit.
Meanwhile, Dragon Capital highly values stocks and real estate. They gave both 3.5-4 points on the investment performance scale.
Regarding stocks, this fund believes that world macroeconomics and the trade war can create short-term fluctuations. But on the other hand, stocks can benefit from market performance expectations coupled with corporate profit growth. The medium-term outlook for stocks is also high, with the Government determined to target growth.
Dragon Capital believes that investors should prioritize stocks with clear growth potential and directly benefit from support policies, including technology, banking, retail, steel or industry.
Explaining the evaluation of the performance of the two channels equally, Mr. Le Anh Tuan said that when setting a long-term vision on synchronously connected infrastructure, real estate has a lot of potential. Dragon Capital is very optimistic about real estate as they see a clear recovery, especially in the Northern region. In the coming time, legal dismantling will continue to be promoted.
In some underserved areas, investors may note the potential for higher performance. However, the risk lies in the fact that medium-term profits of new projects will be difficult due to high opening prices.
Finally, Dragon Capital rates corporate bonds at 3 on a 5-point performance scale. This fund believes that corporate bond yields are still more attractive than bank savings, which means the risk is also higher. Therefore, investors need to be careful when choosing bonds to ensure safety and liquidity.