Dr. Le Duy Binh: Economy 2025 at a stable starting point

Share with VnExpressDr. Le Duy Binh said, Vietnam has the ability to achieve high growth this year, but the essential thing is to maintain a stable speed, efforts for each opportunity and breakthrough.

– According to his observation, what is the remarkable point of Vietnam’s economy 2024?

– Last year’s highlight, in my opinion, is the economy’s resistance to significantly improved. GDP increased by 7.09%, belonging to high groups in the region, despite the inherited difficulties from the previous period.

The fields of agriculture, industry and services are recovered. Total retailer, goods and services increased by 9% over the same period of 2023. FDI capital reached US $ 38.2 billion, pouring stronger into high -tech fields.

This result comes from the proactive and flexible administration of the Government and adapted from people and businesses. Macroeconomic stability, institutional reform, business environment and construction acceleration, operating infrastructure works such as 500 kV line 3 sections of Quang Trach. – Male … has motivated growth.

The great balance of the economy is also guaranteed by the rhythmic coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. For example, the context of interest rates in large economies, the operator has 4 adjustments, helping the domestic interest rate level to lower 2-3 percentage points compared to the previous year. This helps increase the accessibility of people and businesses.

Fiscal policies such as base salary increase from 1/7; Exemption from tax, fees or maintaining high public spending also creates a positive impact on the economy.

– In 2025, the Government aims to grow at least 8%. What does this mean to Vietnam, sir?

– Growing at least 8% next year, even two digits in the following years are ambitious goals. High growth creates motivation to expand production, increase income, shorten gap with developed countries. As a result, Vietnam can escape the average income trap and proceed to the position of developed country, high income according to the definition of the World Bank (WB).

To achieve this, we need an average growth at 6-6.5% continuously in the next two decades. That is, GDP in the coming years needs to increase at 8-9%.

However, it is still important to be continuous, sustainable in the long term and the quality of growth. High growth economy is necessary, but also with risks that need control, such as inflation, public debt, bubbles in the field of real estate and finance.

High growth but need to ensure the principle of immutability is macro stability, quality of public administration, competitiveness of domestic enterprises and the economy.

– How do you evaluate the feasibility of the two -digit growth target that Vietnam has set in the coming years?

– With the recovery of all three main motivations including investment, consumption and export, the economy enters 2025 with a stronger, convenient and optimistic position than the previous year. The beliefs of the people and businesses have been strengthened. The number of newly established enterprises continues to increase, with 157,240 units and many recovery industries.

But as I said above, the goal of high growth is still challenging, forcing Vietnam to greatly try and try each opportunity. Traditional growth drivers need to be refreshed and increased strength. We also need a greater breakthrough in innovation, technology and expand new growth spaces in digital economy – green – circulating.

Outside, the reverse winds are constantly blowing. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the global growth of 2025 is only 3.2%, lower than the average before Covid-19. Large economies still grow slowly, geopolitical tensions have no signs of cooling down.

In addition, Donald Trump’s return to the White House can lead to significant changes in US trade and investment policies. This creates a new risk for trade or changes the flow of FDI investment, directly affecting Vietnam.

– Public investment is still one of the main driving force of this year’s growth. With a total capital of nearly VND 800,000 billion, this is a great pressure when the old backlog is still. So how to refresh this motivation, sir?

– 2025 marked the final stage of the medium-term public investment plan 2021-2025, with a total investment of more than VND 790,000 billion. In recent years, public investment has been a very important motivation of the economy.

Disbursement of public capital is improved, but still needs to be promoted and faster. A public investment capital disbursed in the first quarter will create a much greater economic significance than when it is spent in the last quarter of the year. Because the sooner the cash flow is put into the economy, the chance of turning around and promoting higher growth.

Growing from public investment will be stronger, if it entices and stimulates private investment, creating total power for the economy without putting pressure on the budget and public debt.

In addition, investment growth can be refreshed by capital pouring into key projects, creating a new development space. This supports the economy to move into a new growth model.

– What is the new growth model you just mentioned?

– Vietnam is transferring a growth model based on production factors to labor productivity, economic efficiency, technology and innovation. However, labor productivity and investment efficiency are in fact not high. The economy is still relying greatly on labor intensity, technological level is very limited. The added value of the economy and the main branches is still low.

The model that Vietnam’s economy needs to aim for is based on technology and innovation. This is an opportunity and path for Vietnam to escape middle -income trap and become a developed country and high income. This requires promoting investment, receiving, developing technology and gradually moving to innovation, creating technology, products, services and new business models.

We need to further promote institutional innovations, upgrade infrastructure, train human resources to best support the process of moving to this new economic model.

– In your opinion, what should the Government pay attention to the 2025 operation?

– Although the economy 2025 has more favorable factors than before, but also facing significant challenges. There will be no room for subjective psychology. Flexible and proactive is still one of the basic principles in operating.

Vietnam needs to continue coordinating the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy tools to control inflation, keep macroeconomic stability, as well as increase the efficiency of allocation and use of resources through developing more. Type of capital market, safe real estate.

Finally, we need to maintain the spirit of not getting back to difficulties, persevering in innovation and searching, expanding new growth space. This spirit will help efforts to solve the bottlenecks to build a prosperous and firm economy on the world economic map.