“This is just the beginning”: The Black Swan Author in Well Street Warning

You could say that a DEEPSEEK) event this week He is “black swan.” Early this week as if out of now Anabiya 17% in one day. Anabiya’s fall is estimated to be $ 600 billion. In addition, the great extermination of Wall Street was destroyed yesterday. The wealthy of the world, including Jensan Huang and Larry Allison CEOs and Oracle respectively, have lost over $ 100 billion.

Today, Anabiya is already recovering slightly and adds about 5% to the kit, but the question arises, whether this is just the beginning of declines and a new tech air departure, or is it only a light-time teacher on the way to another year of ups after excellent two years in which the S&P 500 Technology has jumped on 53%.

Nissim Taleb: “This is just the beginning”

Nassi Taleb, author of the Black Swan, warns that the sharp declines in the UBI stock are just a taste of what is expected of investors who blindly put their money in shares that are based on artificial intelligence at Wall Street. Taleb, who often criticizes behaviors that ignore the unexpected nature of the markets, suggests that the bubble around the artificial intelligence shares can be more fragile than it seems.

“Future retreats may be twice as large or even three times the decrease of 17% recorded Anabiya yesterday,” Taleb told Bloomberg. “This is just the beginning. People’s adaptation to reality. Because they now understand – the market is not immune to problems. There is a small crack in glass.”

As an example of Taleb’s theory, you can bring the explosion of the dot-up bubble from 1999-2000. In January 2000, NASDAC 100 dropped 6.5%, twice as much as the fall of yesterday, but the bubble itself exploded only in March. Even then, the S&P 500 index almost completely recovered until September, before falling again.

The sale of mass shares last night was caused by sudden concerns that American technology giants would not control artificial intelligence as expected. Taleb said that investors have so far been overly focused on one narrative: that the company’s shares will continue to rise as it maintains its dominance in artificial intelligence. The decline in Anabiya’s stock yesterday was actually “very small” given the existing risks in the industry, he said.

Taleb, in the past, a multi -best -story reporter who investigates the extreme effects of rare and unexpected events called “black swans”. He is currently serving as a scientific consultant to the Universa Investments that specializes in an end -risk hedge, and offers a type of insurance designed to protect portfolios from violent market events, or “black swan.”

Taleb is known in Wall Street in his pessimistic predictions, which have not all turned out to be correct. In early 2023, he claimed that many investors are not ready for the age of high interest rates, where assets may stop “insanely swelling”. Since then, Wall Street stock metrics have risen by more than 50%.

Rey Delio: It reminds me of the bubble years

Ray Delio, who in 1975 founded the Bridgewater Foundation, which is now considered the world’s largest hedge fund, told Financial Times that “pricing levels have reached high levels, in parallel with the existence of a interest rate risk, and this combination may blow the bubble.”

“The time we are in a very similar cycle for 1998 or 1999,” Dalio said. “In other words, there is a new and meaningful technology that will certainly change the world and succeed. But there are people who confuse technology success and the success of the investment.”

JP Morgan’s forecast and Jeffare

Taleb is not alone in the black forecasts. The various investment bodies are also beginning to warn of the new actress’s implications on the chip industry. JP Morgan noted that Deput’s model raises questions about replica sums that flow in the US market in the field of artificial intelligence, and that it may produce a more effective future in the field of chips.

Jeffris believes that Deput’s model’s success may encourage chip companies to improve their products, so that they will be faster and provide more computing power. Another scenario they present is the focus on chip companies for efficiency and investment feasibility, a matter that may reduce demand for computing force in 2026.

“When the expectations are high, one skeptical title can get the market out of me,” wrote Kali Cox, Rizlz’s main market strategy, in a memorandum published on Monday. “That’s exactly what we see.”

“There are so many concentrations in one field in the market, it is a market that focuses mainly on artificial intelligence, and suddenly inconvenience to the same market.

“As always, the biggest risks are the ones we don’t talk about,” Lerner said. “Everyone thinks it has to do with the tariffs and the Chinese. But, in fact, what we discover is that it was not at all about anyone’s radar.”