Economic growth|The forecast states that economic growth is generally poor without additional investment in education, migration of talent and investment in the fixed capital of new technology.
Population Aging and slow productivity growth weaken Finland’s economic growth and the sustainability of public finances, says the Bank of Finland in its long -term forecast.
The forecast states that economic growth is generally poor without additional investment in education, migration of talent and investment in the fixed capital of new technology.
Low birth rates are considered to gradually reduce human capital.
In the basic scenario of the forecast, GDP increases at its fastest in the 2030s, with an average growth of 1.8 % per year. After that, growth gradually slows down and settles down to over half a percent from the 20550s.
This scenario assumes that the proportion of graduates in a high school will increase by 50 % by 2035 in a population of 25-34. The long -term default of net immigration is 27,000 people a year.
In optimistic In the scenario, the average growth of GDP in the 2030s is two percent, 1.5 % in the 2040s and over a percentage. In this scenario, it is assumed that 70 percent of the 25-34 year olds have completed a higher education degree since 2040. Annual net immigration is expected to be 40,000 people.
In the so-called unchanged politics scenario, GDP will no longer grow in the 2040s and shrinks since the 2050s. This scenario describes a situation where economic growth factors are not supported by additional contribution. Net immigration is expected to have 18,000 people per year in the long term.