The commercial threat must be confronted with unity, says the IP

It is unlikely that the US government applies 25 percent tariffs to Mexico this weekend, institutions of the financial sector said yesterday.

Separately, the private sector considered that a threat of this type must be faced with unit and the National Government must be supported in case you make the decision to deal with new rates with a mirror measure (US export taxes).

There is a low probability and in the event that rates are applied, they will not be long term eithersaid Eduardo Osuna Osuna, vice president and general director of BBVA Mexico.

It would be a very negative and catastrophic scenario (tariffs against Mexico), but unlikelyGabriela Siller, economist in chief of Banco Based, said separately.

“What we will see, perhaps, are tariffs of much less value, and probably do not even see them … but the most relevant thing is that renegotiation or the review of the Free Trade Agreement (T-MEC) can be closed as soon as possible (T-MEC) as soon as possible ”, Said Osuna, from BBVA.

Siller, from Banco Base, estimated that Mexican exports would have a collapse If the United States is considered to be our largest commercial partner. The exchange rate would shoot at 23 pesos per dollar and GDP would have a fall of 4.4 percent.

James Salazar, deputy director of Economic Analysis of Cibanco, explained that although most cases Trump uses these threats as pressure mechanisms, We saw what happened with Colombia; Then to some extent you have to believe him.

The base scenario is that it will be said that it is being negotiated with Mexico and Canada, and tariffs are unlikely. The reactions always go to the assets of the local currency, we would see more weight depreciation, falls in variable income and increases in the yields of the bonds. If the tariffs are prolonged, there will be a negative incidence in the Mexican economy and the confidence of the investor and the consumerSalazar said.

BBVA and Banco Base added that the measure would also have implications in the United States economy: lower growth, 25 percent rise in the cost of Mexican origin and a rebound in inflation.

IP support

The Patronal Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) considered that this challenge must be faced by the country in unity, so once again it supported the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo.

The possible application of these tariff measures not only affects the economic stability of the region, but also puts at risk the advances achieved over years of joint work between the three nations (Mexico, the United States and Canada)said the agency led by Juan José Sierra Álvarez.

On a hypothetical imposition of Mexican oil tariffs, Carlos Bautista, an international trade expert at La Salle University, explained that Mexico is a country that exports oil to the US for more than a century, so they would directly affect the Public Treasury, since income from the sale of crude oil would decrease.

Bautista emphasized that an oil tariff, would automatically make it more expensive for the US consumer.

On the other hand Janneth Quiroz, director of Economic Analysis of Monex, stressed that if this measure is completed, the first impact would be observed in the exchange rate and would take the dollar above the 21 units, for the first time since July 2022, in addition, in addition that risk aversion would remain high while investors evaluate the effect of tariffs on exports of affected products, which would cause volatility in financial variables.

As observed in 2018 and by the economic strength, we do not expect a contraction of exports in 2025, but if the tariffs were maintained, producers would transfer their manufacture to the US in the long termhe pointed out.