The restlessness that arose in a conclave of economists

Despite the surplus in public accounts and the decrease in inflation, the lack of signals on How does the movie follow He began to generate concern among economists. That was the perception that emerged days ago during a conclave where there was talk of the appearance of unexpected events, pressures on the dollar and the possible “exhaustion” of some variables that sow doubts about Javier Milei’s adjustment plan.

“They have begun to look like some shocksin particular, the increase in the performance of the treasure bonds and the fall of soybeans that now motivated the government to lower withholdings with a fiscal cost. And the devaluation in Brazil begins to put pressure on the real exchange rate. The great challenge is to float without crisis and, in this case, it has as an additional challenge the departure of capital control, “Luciano Laspina said last Friday.

The deputy and economist very close to Mauricio Macri analyzed the “Caputo Plan“In a Seminar at the University of Miami and Columbia coordinated by Sebastián Galiani. Juan Pablo Nicolini, Guillermo Calvo, Guillermo Mondino, Miguel Kiguel, Miguel Angel Broda, Marina Dal Poggetto, Juan Carlos de Pablo, Ricardo López Murphy, Ernesto, Ernesto participated Talvi, David Sekiguchi, Nicolás Cachanosky, Sara Calvo and Eduardo Cavallo.

Within that framework, Laspina said that the plan is a “typical” with a fixed exchange rate, but with its own characteristics. “The exchange balance today is mounted on a transitory phenomenon That is the expansion of the argening or the dollarized credits, which also puts a yellow light since the appreciation of the real exchange rate complicates the exit (of the headache), especially when some negative shocks begin to occur. ”

The talk was opened by Nicolini with a paper on “The Argentine tragedy?“Written together with Tobías Martínez González. There, the researcher of the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis states that the country was richer than the rest of the region, but that from the 70s the decline for the” addiction “to the Fiscal deficit, which according to its data generated the systematic crises between 1960 and 2023, with some exceptions.

“The 1995 crisis had a bank origin, initially with a fixed exchange rate with 100% reservations, it is a risk although one has surplus,” said former Rector of Di Tella University. And then praised the government for having achieved the first financial surplus in 16 years: “If this is an addiction, we have been sober during the last 12 monthsand it generates optimism to the extent that we can have sobriety for many more years. ”

Then, Galiani stated that the government is winning as a win, but they just go “the first 15 minutes.” Within that framework, he warned that to grow it is necessary to leave the stocks, but that it is “risky” to generate an exit point the day after the elections. “We still do not leave the cycle a year of growth and a year of non -growththis year we are going to fall 2.6% and next year we will bounce to 5%, “he said.

In turn, Kiguel said he does not see a contractive monetary policy that has fulfilled a role in the strong decline in inflation. And stated that to prevent the market from anticipating the length of the headache after the elections “or anticipated or postponed”. “I would not see a very serious problem in continuing to maintain an ambiguous scheme and eventually leave the stocks,” Nicolini replied.

Dal Poggetto observed that the dollars that the central bank is used are used to pay the debt, so “you are anchoring without reservations.” And warned that there is a contradiction between what the background raises and advance in an increasingly fixed exchange rate to lower inflation. “Stocking will require a much larger fiscal adjustment If you want to recapitize the Central Bank with surplus or hold the debt, “he concluded.

On that point, former Minister López Murphy warned that the pension system “is broken”, recalled that he had proposed to increase the retirement age to 67 and said that this would avoid future retiree judgments as at the beginning of the 90s, for not paying debts. “Part of fiscal balance is because it is not paidwith the city of Buenos Aires a deficit of US $ 6,000 million that is not paid, but is not sustainable, “he said.

In an attempt to synthesize positions, Mondino raised a “Transitionalness sensation“From the program, with many doubts about sustainability.” Temporary stabilizations brought us transient tax relief and when the plan of the plan was overcome, we returned to reality, and We are seeing some of that with the government making tax reductions Perhaps very necessary to stick problems on the exchange side, “he explained.

And he warned that “other temporary elements are this potential exhaustion with a rise in rates that begins to hit the debt and make it difficult to sustain the pseudo financial surplus, The transitory accumulation of reserves linked to bleaching is exhaustedends on December 31 the obligation to maintain deposits, and transience with potential regime or regime change. ”

Finally, Calvo said that “especially in Argentina, plans that seemed to work suddenly stop doing so“, but highlighted Milei’s change with the income tax.” In good sense, he replied profits, it is a very important decision, it will not be able to function without occasion when the support of temporary inconsistency, the question, the question It is what is the way that being inconsistent does not ruin the cake, “he said.