What do investors and analysts think in Washington and Wall Street about crypto-scandal

The president will arrive in Washington on Thursday and that same day he will meet with the Chief of the Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, on Friday he will give a speech at the IDB and on Saturday he will talk to the auditorium of the Constitution of Conservative Action (CPAC), an event that He will have Donald Trump as the main speaker.

To Diego Ferro, President of M2M Capital Management, “what happened on Friday It is very serious. One can see it as an isolated event or as a consequence of how this government manages a lot of things with some carelessness, for example tweets. ”

The reactions of the scandal markets were mixed. In Argentina the Stock Exchange fell on Monday, with a holiday in the USA. On Tuesday the Argentine values ​​on Wall Street accused an initial blow, but then traced with the run of the day.

“The markets initially reacted badly because the news was worrisome, and there may even be some kind of legal consequence here in the United States. Does this change the entire image of Argentina? No, especially the quasi irrational optimism that was that everything was going to work out when Argentina has a much more complex story. But I don’t think it’s enough, ”said Ferro.

An Argentine legal study filed a lawsuit against the US Department of Justice and the FBI on Monday to investigate the protagonists of the Crypto plot, including the role of President Milei.

“If there is bad praxis confirmation, there can change the perspective because obviously, if the government demonstrates little ability to solve problems, how are you going to think that economic problems will solve if it demonstrates little competition in solving serious issues and communication? I believe that in the short term, the news is bad, but the market should be able to absorb it to the extent that at some point it ends. ”

Ferro warns that he could change the feeling towards the country. “Today the glass in Argentina is in half and people were clearly seeing that it was half full. I think he will still see it like that. But if this news continues in the outside media, a time will come when people are going to say that it is too much noise. ”

Mark JonesProfessor of Latin American Studies at Rice University, an expert in the relationship between Argentina and the United States, said that “this is Un blow to the image of Milei in the markets and in governments abroad. “

He explained that “this scandal damages the administration of Milei in different aspects. First, in his image as an economist and” genius “of markets. As is an economist, there was an idea that he knew very well the cryptocurrencies. If he did By the way he is involved with something murky in which thousands of people lost money not only in Argentina but abroad. The first problem for Milei is that your image is beaten and this unpairmed error sows doubts in investors. ”

“It is a setback for your government that can complicate you in getting investments. Until now there was a lot of optimism among investors that Milei was going to win the October elections and thus could deepen their reforms with possibilities of election in 2027. Now their credibility in those investors has fallen a bit. ”

“This mistake also does not help Milei with Donald Trump. Milei has always had political capital as Trump’s best Latin American ally. But although Trump is accustomed to the scandal in his life does not necessarily want to be linked to another ruler who is suffering a scandal, ”he warned.

However, Benjamin Gedan, dDirector of the Latin American program at the Wilson Center and founder of Argentina Project, said he does not believe that the “crypto-gate” has political repercussions in Washington. “Milei is an icon of the Maga Global Movement, YeThis scandal will not damage its international profile in conservative circles. That said, I have argued again and again that The relationship between Milei and Trump is less important than their image among investors. ”

He pointed out that “the reforms that Argentina is carrying out are related to Milei, and not with their young and small political party. If there is a risk, even if it is low, that he leaves the stage, this would make investors think twice before investing in Argentina. The important thing for investors is that Milei leaves the strengthened intermediate elections, which manages to lift the stocks and receive fresh capital from the IMF. ”

“There are high expectations for the second phase of his government, given his success by eliminating the deficit, reducing inflation and, miraculously maintaining social peace and his political support. But no one is convinced that their achievements are irreversible. Milei frequently focuses on his cultural and ideological battles during his frequent trips abroad, instead of selling the country to investors. And he has a lot to sell, ”said Gedan.

Martín Castellano, Director of Latam Research at the Institute of International Finance, highlights the progress of Milei and sees in this crisis an opportunity. “The focus of investors is placed on fundamental economic issues, where progress continues to be observed that, from this event, can even be accelerated. For example, the primary surplus registered in January shows continuity of the important fiscal effort last year. Fiscal austerity differentiates Argentina from the rest of the large countries in the region. Almost all the countries of Latin America have had problems to meet their public finance goals in 2024 ”.

“In this sense, This may be an opportunity to improve institutional processes for decision -making and communication. At the same time, it should be used to seek greater political and technical support given the magnitude of the reforms that are implemented. In a high fragmentation scenario at a global and more care in the internal front, I think the government will have stronger incentives to quickly achieve an agreement with the IMF and finish liberalizing the change market, ”he said.

Walter Molano, Managing partner, director of Research and Chief Economist of BCP Securities LLC, minimizes the impact. He said that “it is an important and shocking issue, but I think they are paying much more attention to Argentina than what is being put abroad. President Trump himself has had experience with this type of instruments that appear out of nowhere, which rise a lot and then collapse. ”

“The people who are in this issue are what are always, and have supported this type of instruments on other occasions. It does not seem to me that this will generate anything in the image of the country. I do not think this will change the relationship with Trump, or with the United States and I really don’t think this is something greater, ”he added.