Morning Bell, Trump threats confuse markets

The markets react in a contrasted way to Trump threats on rates and have taken on an awaited attitude after the US President has started peace talks with Moscow to get to a peace in Ukraine and awaiting the next moves of the Fed. Today the Asian bags falter and the future to Wall Street are positive, after yesterday the S&P 500 and the European price lists have closed on a record level, despite the geopolitical uncertainties and waiting for today’s minute minute minutes.

From the Trump settlement four weeks ago, the US President has imposed a 10% rate on all imports from China, in addition to the already existing ones. He also announced, and postponed by one month, rates of 25% on the goods from Mexico and on non -energy imports from Canada. Furthermore, yesterday Trump told journalists that sectoral duties on pharmaceutical products and chips will start from “25% or more, and will go up considerably over a year”.

And he reiterated his intention to impose similar duties on cars as early as April 2. The market reaction to Trump’s threats has been warm, since investors still consider them a negotiating matter, even if the geopolitical tensions, fears on duties and those on rates have raised the gold price towards $ 3,000 the He honors and strengthened the dollar, considered a good refuge, weakening the euro that stood under 1.05. The pound also went down, while the Japanese yen has risen slightly, since the data on growth have strengthened the prospects of rates increases by the Bank of Japan.

Tomorrow the head of the EU trade commission, Maros Sefcovic, will meet his US counterparts in Washington and that is the secretary of the Howard Lutnick trade, Trump’s candidate for the commercial representative of the United States Jamieson Greer and the director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett to discuss various duties threatened by Trump. Today in Asia the Tokyo stock exchange and that of Hong Kong have weakened while Trump threatens further duties. However Hong Kong rose by over 13% this year, thanks to the prospect of low -cost artificial intelligence applications in China. Shanghai also advances and above all Seoul rises by more than 1.5%, in the wake of technological. The New Zealand bag is weak and the kiwi falling after the country’s central bank has reported a steep trajectory for future rates reductions and cut the cost of the money of 50 base points.

The Sydney bag is also falling and the Australian dollar lost ground after yesterday the central bank has carried out its first cut of the rates since 2020, but warned on the prospects of further loosening. At Wall Street I Future are upwards despite the geopolitical uncertainties and pending the minute of the Fed. They are the minutes of the January political meeting, during which its members decided to leave the interest rates unchanged, despite the signals of one resumption of inflation and the looming threat of duties.

In recent days several members of the US Central Bank have intervened, including Christopher Waller, who said that the new duties of the Trump administration will only have a modest impact on prices, adding, however, monetary policy will have to “remain pending” until the ‘Inflation will not go down again. Even the president of the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia Patrick Harker and his colleague Michelle Bowman said that economic solidity and high inflation justify the maintenance of the stable reference rate for the moment. Meanwhile, the traders include at least one cut of 25 points basis in September and 58% of the possibility of another by December.

On the geopolitical front yesterday United States and Russia concluded the first round of interviews on Ukraine. It was the first high -level negotiations since the beginning of the conflict. Riad’s interviews aroused the fear that Trump wants to resolve the conflict to Putin’s conditions and Trump himself, at the end of the interviews, asked Kiev to keep elections as part of a peace agreement with the Russia. The future on the Eurostoxx are slightly decreasing, after yesterday the price lists of the Old Continent closed positive and touched new maximums, towed by defense titles, except London who closed just under equality.

The expectations of a major public expenditure for the defense have made the performance of the German government bond to 10 years at 2.5%, close to the top for a month. And on Sunday in Germany the early elections will be held, while at the moment the attention of the major political forces is focused on the ability of those who will have the power to reform the debt brake to allow greater expense that favors economic growth. Today, in addition to Fed Minutes, there is expected for inflation data in the United Kingdom. The data on the SMEs of the main economies will be released on Friday, including the USA, with the focus that will be aimed above all at the manufacturing sector which, even if in contraction, is showing signs of improvement. The data on Japanese inflation will always be released on Friday, an acceleration of which he would allow the boj to continue with the rates of rates.