Germany embarks on fateful elections. One thing is safe – the public is tired of migration

1The upheaval to “Europe’s sick man” was completed

Three years of economic recession. This is what will pass on the German economy by the end of the current year. Since the establishment of modern Germany in 1949, it has not experienced such a crisis. A local newspaper in the last week featured the bleak situation: a negative growth of 0.5% this year, a 25% jump in a number of foot raids, an increase of 200,000 unemployed, industrial output is 15%. Instead of being an economic locomotive that attracts the continent, Germany – a country that has been able to recover from economic crises with the help of industry and production – is facing a broken trough.

The cheap energy from Russia, the one that flowed even during the Cold War, stopped. The state passes through a accelerated de-industrialization, but is not prepared for the digital age. Innovation and agility are very far from the German mood. Digital privacy and regulation restrictions, combined with basic conservatism and disgust of changes, stuck Germany away. A welfare policy that suits the industrial age is already irrelevant, and is abused. So is the veteran German concept of zero government debt, which contains it from developing.

Anyone who is elected on Sunday will first and foremost have to extract Germany from this situation, but the format is unclear. Since the changes that Chancellor Gerhard has initiated in the labor market more than two decades ago, there has been no real economic revolution in Germany. The state watched the waves of globalization, which would be impersonable with the expansion of the EU. She trusted the US that would provide confidence, trust Russia that would provide cheap energy and certify China that would be a market for export.

2Break right: The appetite is over for asylum seekers

Most of the German public is migrating to the state in its current form, according to surveys and according to parties’ support that made the issue central in the current elections. One by one, mass stabbing and overrun cases have occurred in recent months performed by reflected asylum seekers, or an Islamist background. Germany opened the boundaries in 2015, 3.5 million people entered, some of which was shelter and some did not, but the problems of the failed integration of both groups undermine the German social model. The German public is afraid to travel by trains. “We refuse to accept that this is the new reality in our country,” March said. The “Refugees Welcome” concept of a decade ago, waiting at Munich’s train station with children’s carts and donations to asylum seekers, replaced with fear and fear.

Two-thirds of the population are now demanding a hard hand against immigration, according to the polls. It also has an economic background. Data whereby one in ten recipients of income in Germany is Syrian ranging and jealousy. At least 30 billion euros spends Germany every year, including health insurance subsidies, income secure and housing. The conditions are better than in most European countries. The Germans want an end to that.

The extreme right is educated to take advantage of this feeling to gain support. An extreme right-wing party like the AFD, one in which neo-Nazi activists, which have elements that undermine the German Constitution, which is saturated with anti-Semitic incidents, presents an immigration policy that wresses many and attracts votes. It is 20% support. March and CDU broke in the last minute in the current elections, and also promised to “break the tools” in the fight against the illegal immigration. March of the gambler who was not able (who did not succeed in voting in Parliament) would play in favor of his party, but may be enslaved.

Germany is the last in European countries where the approach to non-legal immigration has changed. Sweden, Finland and France were there before her. The question is whether the policy will change from the political mainstream, or will fail, and give the extreme right to leap at the expense of the issue.

3European solidarity boundaries are about to test

Germany’s struggle for its economic success and the illegal immigration will have a price. So far, Germany has “found herself” solely in the EU. Now, those who win the election may place national interests above those of the EU. For example, the Dublin Convention allows Germany to deport non-legal immigrants to countries who first received them. She does not do so because of the belief in united refugee policy, and in Europe where the states are interviewed.

Germany also continues to “lose” billions of euros every year on the EU institutions, on behalf of the European project. The question is what will happen if and when the interests collide. The geography does not change. The old reality that led to two world wars still exists. “The poor Germany,” Henry Kissinger said. “It’s too big for Europe, too small for the world.” The renewed Germany tried to change this by the EU. With his possible decline, with the erosion of the German faith in the Union, the bitter reality may be re -hit. Old clashes will threaten to ignite.

And for this problematic mix, it should add that the transatlantic alliance that actually established modern Germany in 1949, is currently collapsed, with the neglect of Europe by the Trump administration. As early as 2017, after her first encounter with Donald Trump, Angela Merkel warned that it was time for Europe to take herself with his hands. Since it has not happened. Germany’s security dependence in the US has not changed, its global power has not been formulated. Only 35,000 American soldiers are now in Germany, eighth what it was during the Cold War. But Russia threatens ever. The army is weak. On Sunday, he will determine how he will begin, under political stability or in Germany.