Trump’s sudden hug to Putin strives to split Russia and China

Foreign policy experts have given the maneuvering attempt the “Nixon Reverse”, after the move of that president in the early 1970s, to make American policy on its mouth and warm up relationship with Communist China in an effort to deepen the gap between Mao Dza -Dong and the Soviet Union. The decision was deducted from the Cold War geopolitics and has been the land for China’s economic development.

It will be difficult to disconnect Russia and China now. The two autocratation declared 2022 because they have “boundless” friendship. The two deepened the military and intelligent cooperation, and their foreign policy cooperation. China provides Russia essential economic support, including computer chips and machines used in military industries.

With her support for Russia and the back to Ukraine, Washington has already elaborated on its allies in Europe, which together constitutes the US’s largest trade partner and its main foreign investor. The sudden turnover can also be discouraged in Asia partners, which the US will want in any conflict with China.

On Wednesday, Trump has echoed Russian propaganda and approached Ukrainian President Volodimir Zlanski. He called him a dictator and blamed Kiev at the opening of the war, which began when Putin ordered an invasion of his small mortgage in 2022.

This outburst, which came after a stingy speech by Vice President JD and Run to European leaders in Munich earlier this month, and other signs of decreased US support in Ukraine, have already caused the largest rupture in the US relation For several decades.

The opposite of “the opposite nixon”

When Hichard Nixon and National Security Counselor, Henry Kissinger, made the policy direction towards China in the early 1970s, they took advantage of an existing collision between Moscow and Beijing. The two, after all, fought in a border war in 1969 and blamed each other with a deviation from Communist teachings. The collaboration between Washington and Beijing helped to nibble in the global swing of the Soviet Union.

What is happening now “is the opposite of the opposite Nixon,” Owen Feigenbaum, a former US Foreign Ministry official and now a member of the Carnegie Foundation for international peace. Trump “tries to disassemble consent between two powers that have ideological affinity and shared strategic interests,” he said. “And instead, the move split the West, while Russia aligns with the US and China at the same time.”

In addition to approximation to China due to Western sanctions, the Ukraine war strengthened Russia’s alliances with Iran and North Korea, which provides ammunition, as UAVs, missiles, and in the case of North Korea, soldiers. The American will find it difficult to deal with at the same time – and say that Trump’s urgent desire to finish The Ukraine war prevents the need to weaken, if not dismantle, the opponents’ common front. “You have to think about it as a worldwide struggle,” said Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellog. “We are facing a problem that we did not deal with four years ago. Now you have these four together, and all of them have economic or military relationships.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was expressed after conversations with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia in the past week, emphasizing “the amazing opportunities that exist for collaboration with the Russians.” In these conversations, US and Russia negotiating executives discussed the possible economic benefits that would be produced from the improvement of relationships and the removal of sanctions that forced Russia further rely on Beijing.

Will you brake China?

A briefing memo prepared for the Kremlin by a thinking team related to the Russian government for the conversations and was achieved by Western government, recommended Moscow to offer the collaboration with China on sensitive technological and military issues, as part of an agreement to end the war in Ukraine under conditions that would be convenient for Russia. Moscow can also offer Chinese participation in infrastructure projects that will strengthen China’s strategic capabilities, written in the memo. Russia has also been offered to restrict natural gas exports to Europe, to undermine European competitiveness and allow sales of American liquid natural gas, as well as offers to grant American companies rights on occupied minerals in occupied Ukraine.

Such conditions are intended to seek Trump’s business approach to international affairs, but skeptics claim that there is little that Russia can do to help the US stop China. “This ship sailed. The Chinese are more technologically advanced, “said Alina Polyakova, CEO of the Center for European policy analysis. She warned that if Washington abandoned Ukraine, she would legitimize “aggressions” and so in Beijing, “who face much less restrictions with regard to her potential military aggression against Taiwan.”

In his statements in the November Security Forum, American Navy Admiral Samuel Paparu, who heads the US induced command that between Beijing and Moscow has “business symbiosis”, and that “think we can stuck a 10 -fantasy.

Only temporary approach

There is another, more essential dynamics that restricts Putin’s maneuvering space: While Russia’s relationship with China is strategic and permanent, all approaching Washington is a temporary nature, at least as long as the US remains democracy. Trump, after all, will no longer be home The white in four years, and Putin should take into account the likelihood that the next US government may swing in the opposite direction. Congress will be held in the next year may change American policy.

“Russia knows that the Communist Party will continue to control its neighbor – and that China’s alienation creates a danger of death to Russia,” said Alexander Gabov, a Russian Chinese relations expert who heads the Carnegie Center Russia Irwasia in Berlin.

This does not mean that Putin will not cooperate. Trump’s suggestions offer a chance to get from Washington something that his turtles were unable to achieve in three years of war: change in the Kiev regime and the return of Ukraine, and perhaps other parts of Europe, the field of influence of Moscow.

“I do not see a reason why Russia will not pocket everything that Trump suggests to her, although she is not worthy of it, and at the same time keeping the close relationship with China,” said Thomas Gomert, director of the French Institute of International Relations, a thinking team in Paris advising the government.

While China is looking at a certain concern in Trump’s turn towards Russia, it also earns a strategic opportunity: its two main goals in Europe, support the Putin regime and the rest of Europe from the United States – goals that have so far been contradicted – suddenly at hand.

While the Castle Washington on Zlansky and European leaders, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked about the need to maintain international law and the UN Convention.