The ceasefire between the Kurdish underground and Turkey changes the power relations in the area

The announcement was accompanied by large and dramatic headlines when, for now, not much has changed: Turkey continues, among other things, to attack Kurdish goals in the north Iraq, The Turkish people expresses a rage on Erdogan’s reconciliation with the PKKBut despite things – nevertheless burns hope among Kurds, the world’s largest people without a state.

Although at this stage there is no significant change in the field, current developments certainly affect many forces operating inMiddle East. In Israel, they often tend to look at the Kurds as one piece, although there are significant differences between the Kurds living in the different Middle East countries, and even within each. Globes reviews the motives and results of the PKK and DJs in Turkey, on power inSyriaIn Iraq and inIran.

Turkey: Kurds as a political tool

theKurds The Turks count about 15 million people, which are about 18% to 20% of the population, according to government estimates UK. The Kurds do not enjoy a minority group in Turkey, because the local constitution recognizes only non -Muslim minorities. Thus, the Kurds have been suffering from a “turquoise” process, designed to disconnect their connection from the Kurdish cultural wealth – and prevent discounted aspirations. The same aspirations whose leading factor was the Kurdish underground and Auglan in her head.

On the economic situation of the Turks, including the Kurdish minority, you can learn from the statements of the members of the Presidential Social and Democratic Equality (DEM). The same party that led the contacts with the Turkish government to read Ajlan to the weapons. “Turkey has experienced its largest poverty and hunger in history,” said the party chairman, Golistan Kilich Kuchihta said about six months ago. “This stems from the current government’s economic policy.” Reggie Taip Erdogan And his people with about $ 3 trillion tax have been charged for 22 years.

However, in recent months, the members of the social and democratic equality party have been openly mediated between Auglan who has been in imprisonment in Imrly and Erdogan and his environment. They are well aware of the political interest that leads the President of Turkey: the desire to make a constitution that will allow him to deal with another presidential term. To this end, he needs 400 votes out of 600 members of the Parliament, but his coalition is narrow, with only 324. Therefore, he wants to recruit the 64 members of the Parliament from the pro -church party, and bring himself a 12 -vote distance from a constitutional change, which will allow him to cope again in the 2028 elections.

Although the Kurdish underground declared a ceasefire, the condition of the Turkish president is not easy. The severe economic situation in the country places it in an easy -to -date allegorical situation, or so – the Kurdish underground has made it clear in the ceasefire statement that it requires the release of Ojlan.

On the other hand, immediately after Ojlan’s statement and even before the Kurdish underground announcement of the ceasefire, the nationalist “Victory” party (ZP) lowered the flags in its headquarters to the mast.

For years, Erdogan has been in a combination of political Islam (Muslim Brotherhood) and Turkish nationalism, according to his political needs. However, the nationalists are currently bypassing him “on the right” due to his political survival. President of the Mishi Mothers’ Association (War Spaces) Turkish, Pakarza Akababa, expressed the Turkish bereaved families on the move on the move: “Let the Justice Minister, the leader of the Justice and Development Party and to all 600 Parliament members to hear it – we do not forgive!”

Akababa’s remarks reflect a popular position in the Turkish society towards the Kurdish underground, while the Kurdish society has recently experienced opposing trends. The “Kurdish Brumiter” survey conducted by a Kurdish Research Institute from the city of Diabkir indicates that on the one hand, the Turkification process and the absence of the Kurdish language placing as a registrari has led to the fact that only 30% of the “good” Kurdish respondents, But on the other hand, the oppression results in Kurdish nationalism among aged 29-17 is significantly higher (67.4%) than those aged 30 and over.

Those young people were small children or not even born when Ajan was arrested, so in the current situation it is difficult to expect how they will respond to the Kurdish underground statements. Whoever has already returned to the islands is Erdogan himself. “If the obligations are not packed and instead become the tactics, fraud or tricks like a renewed branding while doing the same, the responsibility will not be on us,” said Turkish president. “We will continue our prolonged actions, if required, until the last terrorists are destroyed. We will not leave a single stone that does not become, and there will be no enemy.”

Syria: No messages despite Aglan

The Kurdish arena that interests Israel most of course is Syria. The same country that was a decade of Iran’s doll, and became Turkey’s doll. Its territory is divided between the administration in which the international community under the leadership of Abu Muhammad al -Julani in Damascus, and territories controlled by the “Democratic Syrian Forces” (SDF) led by Kurds in the northeastern state.

SDF forces led by Lucky Abdi still enjoy two significant benefits: American backup, and oil. Today, the production of oil in Syria is estimated at about 85,000 barrels a day, with about 90% of which is produced in the eastern Occupied Territories to the River of the Euphrates – an area where Mazalum is controlled. His absence of his desire to surrender to the regime’s threats in Damascus and Ankara, also brought him to rush to make it clear that the Aglan and PKK statement was not valid for him.

He welcomed the statement, but he noted that he was in an internal -Turkish event – and nothing else. “The event has not been related to Syria,” said Abdi, and in fact proved to be how the Turkish line of messages against him over the past decade is notable. Whenever the Turkish army performs an activity against SDF, he defines them as “PKK/YPG”. The YPG is the “Units of the People’s Protection”, the Kurdish component within the SDF, which does not reflect all the forces that protect Rogaba – Syrian Kurdistan.

The exploding balloon of the Turkish messages about the Syrian Kurds reflects how much they see the Kurds a transverse danger. In the eyes of Ankara, if a formal Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria is created, alongside northern Iraq, it may increase the nationalist emotions of Kurds in Turkey. As a result, the bottom line, Erdogan sees Kurds everywhere. “If there is peace in Turkey, it means that they will not have an excuse to continue to attack us here in Syria,” Abdi stung Turkey.

Iraq: oil above all

In contrast to Syria, Iraq has Kurdish autonomy (KRG) where the main government in Baghdad recognizes. The existence of autonomy brings about the fact that the Barzani family leading the rope of the country has been working against the Kurdish underground for many years. “The process in Turkey has been enthusiastic about Turkish, Kurds and all components of Turkey,” he said about two weeks ago to local autonomy president Nachirban Barzani.

The absence of the Berzani family’s backing to Turkey’s PKK and current attacks in northern Iraq against them, also bring fire exchanges between the Kurdish underground in the country and the autonomy forces. “The PKK has suppressed our people in decades without justification,” said autonomy senior, Serbast Lazgin, at a funeral to the Kurdish border guard man who was killed two months ago in fire exchange with the PKK. “Our leaders fall, the roads are covered in explosives, and are looking to hurt our fascia people, who are killed.”

Kurdish autonomy has a political interest, but even more economic, quietly – due to oil dependence. Since March 2023, Turkey has stopped allowing oil from Iraq through Turkey – the volume of 450,000 barrels a day, of which 370,000 Kurdish barrels are. The motive for the break was a ruling of the International Commerce (ICC) according to which Ankara is required to compensate Baghdad for $ 1.5 billion, following damages due to illegal exports from 2018-2014.

Since then, only the National Iraqi Oil Company has been allowed to export through the Port of Jihan in Turkey, the same port through which the State of Israel receives the oil from Azerbaijan. Iraqi oil exports as a rule and the Kurdish oil in particular through Turkey has an impact on world oil consumption, due to being a source of 0.5% of all global supply. Therefore, a government Trump Pressing to solve the prolonged crisis, and the Iraqi oil office invited foreign companies about a week ago and the Kurdish administration to discuss this week in the solution to disagreements and the development of the industry throughout the state.

It is a mutual interest in Baghdad and the Barzani family, because the Iraqi budget is an incident of $ 16 per kettle to the Kurdish autonomy, while the Iraqi government is required to burn the Kurds – it is a source of about 60% of the Iraqi production. A fundamental part of the reason for the Trump administration wants to solve the problem, is that three American companies have invested billions of $ 1 billion in the Kurdish oil company, for the development of the local economy.

Iran: Ojalan is Mandela

The latest country that is directly influenced by what happens between the Turkey administration and the Kurdish underground in the country is Iran, whose relationships with the Kurds are characterized by various interests that have changed over time. For example, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Ayatollah regime appealed to help Kurds in Iraq, with the aim of weakening Saddam Hussein during the Iran -Iraq War in the 1980s.

On the other hand, in recent years, the Ayatollah regime forces have attacked destinations in Iraqi Kurdistan where, they claim that PKK’s officials from Iran have been, and above all, remember the Hijab protest that was due to the murder of Mahalea Amy. A young woman who passed away for the abuse of regime personnel during a detention that resulted from a “unworthy” headdress.

Like what is happening in the other countries, the Kurds in Iran are a weakened population group. From data from the Iranian Bureau of Statistics in 2022, it revealed that Kurdistan and Karmanha districts, both with the majority of Kurdish, had the largest unemployment rates in the country: 13.8% and 17.4%. This, while the national average unemployment rate was 8.2%.

Like the other minorities in the Islamic Republic, the Kurds suffer from widespread silence. About a month ago, an Amnesty Supreme Court decision in Iran was condemned to leave the death penalty of the 40 -year -old Kurdish human rights activist, Poshan Azizi.

On the other hand, it seems that journalists and human rights activists have no choice, but to congratulate the Kurdish underground leader. “Ojlan took the first step – now the ball by Turkey’s court,” said journalist Ismail Shams. “Mandela, who was previously imprisoned as an armed group leader who was taught as terrorists, was discovered as a global symbol of equality and justice. Ojlan is another Mandala of the Middle East.”