The Trump administration may push America to the drama that will shake the dollar

President Trump has begun his tenure in the storm and flood of presidential orders that many of them, if they are implemented, economic and far -reaching meanings. Many of the orders are clearly contrary to the provisions of the Constitution, in part with regard to “wallet”, ie the authority in any budgeting and issuance of the Federal Government, which is exclusive by Congress. Many of these orders have already been arrested for temporary court orders. Now the campaign will move to the courts, for hearing themselves, as well as new petitions that will probably come.

The dissatisfaction of the new administration from these developments is clear. Elon Musk has already called the judicial orders of the “violent revolution” of the judicial system. Vice President JD and Rann went a step further in declaration that “the judges are not allowed to control the legitimate force of the executive authority” (ie the president). Trump as his usual was grandiose of all. He completely eliminated the idea of ​​legality. “Anyone who works to save the state does not violate the law,” tweeted.

This approach is a challenge to the entire American method, which is intended to deliberately intend to decentralize powers between the authorities and countries, and for “tests and balances” set by the founding fathers in the constitution. In light of these revolutionary statements of the administration, it will not be wonderful that failure to comply with the court rulings has already been raised as a possible option. Speaks this specifically, Vice President Vance in an interview as early as 2021. In a podcast in which he was hosted that he would recommend Trump “to fire any bureaucrat and a medium -sized civil service clerk, and replace it with our people.” Since he was also clear that the legality of such a step was in great doubt, he added: “When the court will try to stop you (Trump), stand before the nation and say ‘the Supreme Court has now ruled, let’s see him enforce his judgment’.” Reading a direct and brazen challenge on the idea of ​​the entire rule of law.

Appeal on the rules of the game may come back as boomerang

America was founded on the basis of a very revolutionary idea for its time. According to him, the executive authority is not a king who gives himself powers and the interpretation as a spirit of the law. But it is the public servant, limited by the Constitution, the two homes and countries. As part of these rules of the game, the disputes regarding the interpretation of the provisions of the Constitution and the Laws will decide exclusively. Unlike perhaps national countries and antique tribal companies, the United States and the rule of law are the only foundation and the common foundation for the very existence of the Republic. By virtue of this constitution, the method has the 40 million residents of California there are the same number of representatives in the Senate such as 600,000 residents of Vioming, and 20 million in New York such as 750,000 Alaska residents, although California and New York produce more than 20% of the US, and pay more than 20% of all the taxes.

The government’s refusal to hold judgments will result in a severe constitutional crisis as much as the historic refusal of Southern countries to accept President Lincoln and their union retirement in 1860, and may easily and quickly deteriorate into a political-social crisis that his scope, dimensions and directions are difficult to evaluate. In the 2024 election, Trump won only 1.5% votes, and the Republican Party has only five seats in the House of Representatives (220: 215) – and not a license to cancel rules of 250 years of play. Furthermore, an appeal for the rules of the game may return to them as Boomerang: for example, an appeal on the rule on which four of the five small states in the US, which live about 1% of the population, which contributes about 1.2% of the GDP, sends no less than eight Republican representatives (out of the 100 Senate members), which also produces the Republican.

The way from refusal to maintain the rules of the game to a very short turmoil. There may be far -reaching economic implications. After all, a quarter of the American GDP is manufactured in three blue countries (California, New York and Illinois) and 68% of the GDP comes from districts where there is a democratic majority.

The man who called “Finish the Fed” will head?

But things don’t stop here. Musk and Trump have already announced that the federal has also been aimed at the intention. In recent weeks, Musk has tweeted several times about the need to criticize the central bank and the way in which his policy is determined. He also suggested that former Congress member Ron Paul will conduct the review. This is not a accidental choice: 89-year-old Paul from Texas has been known for many years as a sharp visitor of the Fed. In 2009, he published a book called “Finish the Fed,” in which he called for the closure of the central bank, since it is “unconstitutional, financially harmful and danger to the individual’s freedom.” In a recent interview, Paul repeated his calls to investigate the Fed and receive details of how his monetary policy was managed, and how and why he made payments. Musk not only seeks to appoint him to the Fed Comptroller, he also believes that Paul should be appointed to head. “He will be a tremendous appointment as Federal Reserve’s next chairman,” he tweeted. The idea has already begun to gain support for the libertes and ultra-conservative circles in the Republican Party. Senate member Mike Lay Miotta, for example, was quick to respond: “It will be amazing to see Ron Paul as chairman of the Fed.” Trump’s candidate for the President’s Economic Advisory Forum was quoted as he advocated in short, in short, the time of the Fed’s sailor’s tenure, and their disgrace to the president, who could be fired at his wishes.

Musk, like his partner Trump, is also solid opinions on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Last summer, he tweeted that the bank was too slow in cutting the interest rate and that “the Fed was stupid by not yet cutting the interest.” On the concept, Trump returned a few weeks ago, repeating his demand from January that “the interest rate is to go down.” Fed Padwell Powell was quick to return. Outside of all this so we can focus not on choices or help or damage to a politician or party … but to serve the public as a whole, “Powell added:” It is clear, politicians who want to be elected will not focus on long -term needs. ”

Much of Paul’s criticism is justified. The Fed, mainly under Alan Greenspan and continued Ben Bernanki, led a promiscuous monetary policy, which led the American economy to bear unbearable debt, as well as a monetary assets and subsequently unprecedented and dangerous wealth gaps. But the fact that the fact should not be replied, and any attempt now to hurt the Fed’s existence and independence has huge risks.

Particularly sensitive circumstances at the front of the debt

Also at the forefront is a fuss and glitter. The new administration makes every effort to undermine relationships with the upcoming United States of America – Europe, Canada, Mexico and the NATO Bar, which was the World World Order of World War II. Germany’s intended Chancellor Friedrich March has already said that Europe has “obtaining independence from the United States.” The disengagement from Europe – who, meanwhile in the White House’s horror play while the visit of the Ukraine Zalansky president – will have far -reaching effects in the East. Given the abandonment of Ukraine, it is hard to see how Taiwan will remain independent, and not surprised if many of America’s Allies in Asia will soon look for rails to Beijing.

This rapid and dramatic weakening of the US status in the world is accompanied by threats on the imposition of aggressive covers mainly on its (former) daughters (formerly), precisely at an hour of sensitive circumstances at the front of the debt. The U.S. government’s debts amount to $ 35.5 trillion. The debt is made up of two parts: about $ 7.3 trillion, which is known as internal-government debt, is inconvenient and held by the government itself and includes, among other things, about 2.8 trillion the dollar that the Treasury owes to the National Insurance Fund. About 29 trillion from the debt is negotiable, ie in bonds, and known as “by the public.” From almost a third, about $ 8.6 trillion as of the end of 2024, held by foreign governments, headed by Japan ($ 1.1 trillion), European countries (over 2.6 trillion), China (about 750 billion) and Canada (about 375 billion). In addition, there is a turnover outside the US $ over the US.

Flexible policy, in contrast and appellant of the Trump-Musk-Vance administration, inward and exterior, may connect three dangerous crises to one. A deep constitutional crisis, severe impairment of the Fed independence and deterioration in international relations can create too large drama for the large US government debt. Such a triangular crisis can easily lead to the flood of American debt sales in general, and of the Federal Government in particular. The government’s ability to recruit debt, 9 trillion is required this year.

This connection can also lead to a quick collapse in the US dollars in the US dollar, which will cause a wave of bond redemptions, a dramatic increase in interest rates, as well as a collapse in the stock markets, which are also priced for perfect. Such a parachute is accompanied by dramatic weakening of the world of dollars in the world will produce chaos in the entire global economy, as we have not watched since the decade after World War I. Such a scenario will be the end of the American century, of the Fiat world and the global economy as we have known it for many decades.

There was only one hope – the big money in America. Out of an understandable and clear interest he can stop this stance to the bottom. A hint of this can be found in Canada and Mexico, which were announced in a fanfare, were rejected for a month, were again assigned to a big voice and now it is their cancellation or a dramatic change.