India unloaded the ban on export and Vietnamese rice at risk of deep reduction

India has just resumed 100% broken rice exports to provide cheap cereals for poor countries in Africa, while supporting the animal feed and ethanol production in Asia. However, with 100% broken rice reserves increased by nearly 9 times compared to the target, this move makes the market face more fierce competition.

According to Himanshu Agrawal, CEO of Satyam Balajee Rice Export Company, 100% broken rice of India is currently offered at 330 USD per ton, higher than 300 USD per ton from Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan. Although the price is still different, the return of the supply from India will make the market adjust.

Ms. Huynh Thi Bich Huyen, Director of Ngoc Quang Phat Import Export Joint Stock Company, said the competition would be more fierce when Vietnam entered the winter -spring harvest – the biggest season of the year. Although the output is abundant thanks to favorable weather, the price of rice is difficult to return to 500 USD per ton. Export enterprises are also more cautious in purchasing due to continuous fluctuations and slow exports.

According to the Vietnam Food Association, domestic rice prices have continuously decreased since early March, making Vietnam one of the cheapest supply. However, in the past two months, 80% of export rice is high quality rice, not directly competing with 100% broken rice of India. However, the pressure from India’s large supply can still affect prices, especially in the low -end rice segment.

Reports from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment shows that Vietnam is challenged from Pakistan’s price competition, Myanmar, increasing input costs and import barriers in the EU, Japan and the United States. However, Vietnamese fragrant rice still has the advantage in the high -end segment thanks to extensive economic integration and sustainable production support policies. If continuing to improve the quality and improvement of production, Vietnam can maintain a stable market share.

Facing this situation, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment proposes solutions to stabilize the rice industry, including improving post -harvest storage, expanding export markets and supporting businesses in logistics and e -commerce. In addition, businesses and farmers will be supported with preferential credit to invest in technology and agricultural infrastructure. In the long term, Vietnam needs to change the production structure, develop climate change rice varieties, promote deep processing and invest in logistics to aim for sustainable production.

The forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that the global rice production of the 2024-2025 crop can reach a record of 533.7 million tons, an increase of 11 million tons compared to the previous year. The total supply is estimated at 712.8 million tons, while the demand for forecasting is 530.3 million tons, mainly from India and the Philippines. The end of the end of the period is estimated at 182.5 million tons, with 81% of India and China. In the context of global rice trade is expected to reach 58.5 million tons, the large demand for imports from the Philippines and Indonesia may be an opportunity for Vietnam. But in order to maintain its position, it is necessary to strategy to protect the competitive advantage and take advantage of the potential market.