The economy, between the enthusiasm of the field and the anxiety for the dollars of the IMF

Thus expresses a sector pushed by the imperative need for efficiency such as the field, with Child margins and eager for disruptive technologies that improve processes and volumes. By the way, Castellani’s attitude is not a spark. There are several examples, such as those exhibited this week at Expoagro where there were until 10 kilometers of row on Route 9 To enter the San Nicolás site 231 kilometers from the Obelisk, where the sample that Javier Milei visits today is developed.

And that was the air that breathed by Minister Caputo in his visit on last Wednesday. His dissertation, without space for questions, was before the dramatic events in Congress. During the talk the minister He did not mention the agreement with the IMF.

Dialoguist opposition sources, who say they arrive at IMF officials, let it transcend that although the memorandum with the background is defined, in Washington they would prefer that it be approved by Congress, something that after the violence on Wednesday was totally discarded. The DNU sent by Milei is even uncertain. They also ensure that the amount of the operation would be 11,000 million dollars and there would be 9,000 million more from the World Bank and the IDB.

But that help of US $ 20,000 million would not be free. In the case of IDB and World Bank, disbursements would be subject to projects that must be specified. And the IMF, as usual, Tar it to the fulfillment of goals.

The knot remains in the exchange issue that would be flexible and correct distortions. Yes indeed, dollars cannot be used To intervene in the market.

The last report of the Abeceb consultancy, whose director is former Dante Sica Minister, gives a track on the emergency: “The Central Bank’s current account shows deficits systematically since June 2024; The January commercial surplus It was low And all this occurred in a context of an increase in salary in dollars and a fall of the actual multilateral exchange rate that Round 40% in a year. Liquidity in dollars does not improve: net reserves remain negative. ”

Entrepreneurs closely follow this issue to know what to stick to. A good percentage chooses to trust that the government It will not move from the chosen course and the stock will continue much more, helped by the entry of foreign currency. Others feel in a moor, with the current exchange rate that generates a important gap in terms of competitiveness with countries such as Mexico and Colombia That, following Trump’s tariffs, they could derive commercial balances that were previously destined to the US and, of course China, which subsidizes its exports.

But even in the field, productive differences with respect to other countries are notable. Rodolfo Rossi President of Acsoja, the chain that brings together the soybeans, tells that Brazil, without retentions, passed uswith 170 million tons, in a crop in which it started our torque. This year the Argentine soy harvest would reach 48 million. Those Rossi calculations took relief to the Secretary of Agriculture, Sergio “El Abuelo” Iraeta, who moved his office to Expoagro all week. “In February there was a spectacular water recovery in many areas. And there will be one relatively interesting harvest “Rossi released.

It is, perhaps, what explains the enthusiasm that credits aroused at 9% in pesos and 5.5% in dollars offered by the National Bank. At least, at Expoagro, a stable economy is committed to down.

Today, the February data is known that, with a few tenths in more or less, He would not get out of the way.

Gabriela Tolchinsky, CEO of The Capital Corporation of Comafi, talked about the explosion of the leasing system, the rental with option to buy to access the machinery. They achieved operations for $ 110,000 million in 2024, which are doubling this year.

“We notice very good expectation, but maintaining caution in decision making. Even so, operations were closed with values ​​well above what was planned, ”said Federico Taffeell, manager of the macro division destined for agriculture. This bank gave the note this week by incorporating Juan Parma that when it was CEO of English HSBC He managed to sell it to Galicia at US $ 550 million. In this way the Brito de los Brito occupies the position left Vacant Gustavo “Paco” Manríquez when he abandoned them to drive the Supervielle, of the homonymous family.

During his visit to Expoagro, Caputo exchanged brief words with the president of the Rural, Nicolás Pino who managed to build a friendship with Milei.

Pin There will be no reversal with the retentions reduction, Although both Milei and Caputo talk about temporary reduction. “I don’t even think about it,” he said when he shares the decisions made by the government. “The producers will have to be really very efficient in what we do and the government at all levels will have to continue taxing.”

Some of that are digging the refrigerators, after China will detect breaches in shipments by two floors, Las Heras and Cold Dock General Regional Frigorific, and suspended their shipments. This Monday The Chinese Customs Director arrives especially to Buenos Aires. In the midst of that dispute, the institute that promotes the vaccine meat (IPCVA) changed president and chose George Breitschmitt, a Coninagro counselor who promises to review the promotion policy paid by farmers. There will be surprises.

The tender of the hydrovia continues to turn between the rural leadership that wants to have a voice in the assembly of the new process and so far is a stone invited. “We are the main loading giver of that hydrovy, we want to participate as many companies as possible, because the greater the participation, the highest price, and at the price, we always end up paying the producers,” Pino argued.

To all this, energy and mining investment ads follow stern wind. This week Jakob Stusholm, Global CEO of the Australian Anglo Rio Tinto, confirmed to Javier Milei The investment of US $ 2.7 billion In lithium in the country. And there are others on the way say the governors who participated in the Mining Summit in Canada with Karina Milei and Pablo Quirno the number two of the economy.

There are other investments that are held in agribusiness as the case of Canadian McCain in frozen fries that replicates in Argentina her fight globally with the American Lamb Weston, with brand new plant in Mar del Plata. Argentina produces about 350,000 tons per year and the 70% export mainly to Brazil. They assure that in the domestic market there is a lot to grow in the face of per capita consumption of fresh potatoes of 52 kilos/year and 2.2 kilos/year of frozen potato.

But further south, at the Aluar plant in Madryn the weather is pure uncertainty. Yesterday the tariffs that Trump applies to aluminum and steel and Aluar decided to suspend deliveries. You don’t know how long. So far there are no signs of any differential treatment.

Meanwhile, another danger begins to germinate: the reciprocal tariffs with which Trump threatens products from almost all countries based on tax schemes that must be similar to that of the US to avoid commercial punishment. A fact that causes insomnia is that Trump Consider VAT as a subsidy. Milei officials talk about the commercial agreement with the USA, although they recognize that at the moment they do not have who to negotiate in the northern country.