Signs of deceleration to the first bimester

After closing 2024 with a contraction, the Mexican economy presented mixed signals in the first 2025 two -month period: the industry will remain depressed and the services will have a moderate advance, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) estimated.

The timely indicator of the Economic Activity (IOAE) calculated that the global indicator of the Economic Activity (IGAE), a referential of the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), registered an advance of 0.6 percent annually in January and a contraction of 0.7 percent in February, because the industry fell 2.8 percent annually in January and 2.1 percent in February compared to the same months of 2024.

On the eve of the INEGI publishing the definitive data of January IGAE, next Monday, the timely indicator indicates that the services and trade advanced 1.4 percent annually during the first month of 2025, while for February it foresees a moderation of growth, to 0.4 percent.

In its monthly measurement, economic activity advanced 0.1 and 0.2 percent in January and February, respectively.

Tertiary activities, which include trade and services, presented increases of 0.1 and 0.2 percent monthly in January and February.

Since the second half of 2024 the Mexican economy has shown a monthly undulating behavior. However, weakness remains the dominant trend.

The IOAE, which estimates the performance of the Mexican economy before the publication of the global indicator, better known as IGAE (a monthly GDP referential), anticipated a slight recovery in January, mainly due to the progress of services, but for February it could not maintain the impulse, due to the moderation of the tertiary sector and the fall of the industry.

“The appropriate indicator estimates retain signs of slowing the economic activity in the first months of 2025. The figures of December IGAE registered a deep fragility in the main sectors (services and manufactures). Likewise, the monthly indicator of the January industrial activity showed a marking weakening, Rosa Rubio said, Monex analyst.