The speculative positions that are committed to the Chicago futures market due to a greater appreciation of the weight increased last week at their best level since August 2024, with 25,900 new contracts.
These bets in favor of the peso imply an 86 percent increase over the 30 thousand 100 contracts reported the week of March 14 to 18. Eight days ago there were 56 thousand who bet on an appreciation of the Mexican currency.
The dollar bounced last week since its November minimums, registering its first weekly gain in March, after chaining losses in January and February. With that, the exchange rate depreciated 1.6 percent to 20.24 pesos per dollar, after having reached its best level of the year a week before, approaching 19.90.
We maintain a cautious posture favoring the purchase of the dollar in falls given the persistent uncertainty and volatility. The looks are focused on April 2, when the United States reciprocal tariffs would enter
said Santiago Leal, director of Banorte market strategy.
The growing uncertainty around Donald Trump’s tariffs and reprisals of commercial partners have caused risk, volatility and losses of more than 10 percent in indices such as S&P 500, from a recent maximum.
According to Carlos Ponce, founding partner and general director of SNX, the S&P 500 took only 16 days to decrease from its recent maximum to correction. It is the fastest drop observed from the Covid-19 pandemic, in March 2020.
Since 2008, the S&P 500 has fallen in the first month after it enters a correction, and offers an average negative movement of 1.7 percent after 30 days.