In the midst of exchange tensions, with a central bank that does not stop selling dollars and with the market attentive to the details that may arise from the negotiation between the government and the International Monetary Fundthe Ministry of Economy seeks to clear doubts about a possible exchange jump With a menu of bonds tied to the dollar, in a key tender that will be done this Thursday.
Next Monday the government has maturities for $ 9.2 million. To cover them, it will offer investors a series of bonds, among which they stand out Two title options tied to the dollar.
The market look is set on those bonds. They are the same as in February and March the Ministry of Economy declared deserts due to lack of interest.
At that time, both Luis Caputo and the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno, read in the lack of demand the market guarantee to your statements that there was not going to be a devaluation. “We offered a dollar Link for those who saw exchange delay, but had no demand,” Caputo had written on the social network X, while Quirno endorsed: “One thing is those who think, another the market”.
For the Outlier consultant from Gabriel CaamañoEconomy is sending a message with the tender of one of the two Dollar Linked bonds, which expires on June 30. “It is a reinforcement of the statements of several government figures about at least A exchange jump is not placed in the short term. It is a Treasury statement that, if you choose to abruptly raise the exchange rate, will pay costs. ”
However, they do not believe that this signal solves what is being seen these days in the market. “We consider that, if there have not been such instruments, investors had taken it as a ‘Confirmation’ of a jump to come “.
In Cohen they agreed: “The striking of this tender is the reopening of the Dollar-Linked as of June of this year, offered in the middle of a marked coverage demand Observed in recent weeks, “they said and alerted:” It will be key to monitor the rates that the treasure will validate, since $ 9.2 billion expires –an elevated amount compared to previous months-, added to exchange volatility and upward pressure in the rates that were seen in recent weeks. ”
For Cohen, The tender “looks challenging”, Although they stressed that “the treasure has $ 6.1 billion deposited in the Central Bank account, which could cover up to 66.4% of this month’s obligations if the tender is not successful.”
“Despite the volatility, the renewed appetite for exchange coverage against the official dollar is still in force. The market continues to assign a certain probability that there is a modification to the exchange scheme, Mainly of the Crawling PE of 1% monthly, which can range from bands to a sliding of the official exchange rate, “they acknowledged in PPI.
PPI analysts added that with this strategy, Caputo “not only seeks to decompress the dollar futures, loving demand for exchange coverage, but also anchor devaluation expectations To prosecute the exchange scheme to what he knew how to be until just a couple of weeks ago. That is to say, That the 1% crawling pert believes itself sustainable to the mid -term elections, which would again encourage the strategies of carry trade of exporters and importers and to take dollars in dollars. ”
This Wednesday, the futures market operates on low and all contracts for this year have falls. Investors now expect the official dollar to be below $ .1400 in December. This disarmament of future positions can be a clue to what the market bidding market will be.