The European car industry trembles in view of April 2ndthe date on which the new US tariffs of the 25%. To understand the extent of the problem that weighs on the companies of the Old Continent, just mention the number of vehicles exported to the USA in the 2024: 750,000 cars for a value of 38.5 billion euros according to the statistics of the European Association of Car Manufacturers (ACEA). And among all, the German producers are those who have the most to lose from the rates wanted by the president Donald Trump.
The impact on German companies
The four wheels “made in Germany” they almost reach i two thirds of the European machines sold in the USA. Volkswagen, BMW e Mercedes They have already published Financial Foschi results for 2024, with a drop in profits, mostly due to the slowdown of sales in China. According to Capital Economics, in case of confirmation of 25%rates, their sales could halve themselves.
Said with the words of the German federation of car producers, this would be
“A fatal signal for free trade”.
The risk for Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche
Inside the galaxy VolkswagenI am Audi e Porsche The brands to risk the major losses, since they produce all their models outside the United States. Partially different situation for BMW e Mercedes who have their own establishments in Alabama e South Carolinawhere some SUVs such as the BMW X5 and Mercedes Gle make. If on the one hand this would allow them to avoid some customs duties on sales in the United States, on the other, if the commercial war becomes “global”, the exports of these SUVs in other countries could become less profitable.
The positions of BMW and Mercedes
Per BMWa commercial conflict “would not be of any benefit”, therefore he invited Europe and the United States to “quickly find a transatlantic agreement” and avoid “a spiral of isolation and commercial barriers”. More clear Mercedes who asked for the abolition of mutual customs duties.
The prospects of Stellantis and Volvo
Stellantis It seems to have better prospects. By operating between Europe and the United States, they generate most of the sales in the old continent, but above all most of the profits in North America, with its brands Jeep, Dodge e Ram. It has numerous factories in Mexico and Canada which will be severely affected by taxes imposed on these two countries. Yet Stellantis is less exposed to the commercial conflict between the United States and Europe, because it exports only a few jeeps produced in America and matters in the United States only a few vehicles Fiat, Alfa Romeo o Maserati.
Volvo and Renault
Also the Swedish-Cinese Volvo It makes great business in the USA thanks to SUVs, without forgetting that since 2015 it has a factory in South Carolina. Regarding the future, the company through the CEO Jin is in Robin. He made it known that he could “relocate production or even move suppliers to different parts of the world”. Among European manufacturers alone Renault It could be almost immune to duties, because it does not sell almost any cars in the United States, but the rates would force the company to give up its development plans for the brand Alpine.
Moody’s and Keney’s forecasts
On the war of the duties and the consequences for European car manufacturers, he also expressed himself Moody’s that at the end of February he explained that “producers could absorb part of the costs within their current price margins”. This is especially true for the most expensive and profitable models. But the announced level of customs duties still leaves little room for profits. To the point that second Kearneythe rates could “quickly lead to losses of several billion euros and put up to risk of up to 25,000 jobs in Europe”.