Heels|The popular mortgage reference rate dropped to the lowest on Friday since the fall of 2022.
The abstract is made by artificial intelligence and checked by man.
Nordea’s main analyst Jan von Gerich warns that interest rates can turn on.
The 12 -month Euribor dropped to 2.324 percent on Friday, and then to the lowest fall 2022.
EU and German defense investments can stimulate the euro area economy and accelerate concerns about inflation.
According to von Gerich, an increase in interest rates to 3-4 % is possible if economic growth accelerates.
Popular The mortgage rate of the mortgage 12 months Euribor fell to its lowest on Friday for many years. On Friday, the reference rate was listed to 2.324 %.
Even before Friday, it had time to knock new bottom readings over the week.
However, it is no longer worth downloading very high expectations for interest rates, as the bottom readings will soon be on the way.
The decline in interest rates has already slowed down clearly and the market is not expected to decline a lot anymore.
Some experts are already considering the possibility that interest rates will turn again.
“Especially in Finland, the decline in interest rates is still desired as the soles are faded. In the case of fears of customs and uncertainty, interest rates may decline even longer, but more interesting is the new high -end scenario, where interest rates are rising,” writes Nordea’s chief analyst writes Jan from Gerich on his blog.
Now The interest rate check brought a big benefit to the mortgage debt. If the loan interest rate check date occurred on Friday, the drop interest rate was 1.3 percentage points. A year ago, the 12 -month Euribor was 3.669 per cent.
In the current readings, the 12 -month Euribor was the last time in September 2022. It was a time when interest rates only started to accelerate.
We are now also close to a situation where three and 12 months of Euribors are almost in levels. On Friday, the three -month Euribor dropped to 2.355 %.
The Euribors have been declining since autumn 2023. Back in September 2023, Euribor was at its highest at 4.23 %.
Reason To the fact that the rise in interest rates may soon be ahead, there is a reversal to the European economy.
According to von Gerich, the EU’s extensive defense investment plans, and in particular the large -scale investments in defense and infrastructure, will significantly brighten up the economic outlook of the entire euro area.
According to Nordea’s preliminary estimate, measures can stimulate German economic growth next year by about one percentage point and the euro area economy by half a percentage point.
It is also possible that growth will be more clearly picked up this year if private consumption and investments start, Von Gerich writes.
According to him, growth is unlikely to be accelerated very much in order to arise again for inflation.
If inflation starts to accelerate much faster than the targets, the ECB will react to it by raising the control interest rate. This has made it clear.
Raising the control interest rate would also be reflected in Euribors.
Currently, a couple of interest rate drops are expected from the European Central Bank this year – though they are no longer sure. Nordea’s prognosis, on the other hand, is waiting for only one interest rate for this year.
According to von Gerich, interest rates could be relevant in the most positive scenarios by the end of this year, but more likely only next year.
According to him, the increase in interest rates back to 3-4 % is not a far -reaching scenario if the euro area’s economic growth starts better. In order for interest rates as fast as 2022-2023, the inflation shock should be big.