They are all official data, the majority of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security and INDEC. And already in the train to see in which station we are, one of them tells that In Argentina in December 2011 there were around 6.4 million registered private workers, that is, blank, with salaries agreed in peers and contributions to retirement.
45% of those wage earners were distributed among three activities. In round numbers, 1.3 million were occupied in the manufacturing industry, 1.1 million in retail and wholesale and 459 thousand in construction.
According to the same source, 21 years later towards the second quarter of 2024, it would be said that today, comparable numbers sing: total, 6.6 million registered private workers of which 1.2 million are in the industry, the same in commerce and 388 thousand in construction.
Everything put clean, it means that In two decades nothing changed In the variables that best express the course of the real economy, although more precise it would be to deduce that, given the time elapsed, at that point Things have worsened.
Some of that happens, indeed, if we continue with the picture describing the official figures and move forward with the barrage of numbers.
Those of INDEC, now calculated at constant prices of 2004, that is, perfectly comparable with each other, they say that 2024 GDP exceeds just 1% to 2011. Then, after 13 years, we are still nailed in the same place or even in one who is a little below, while the world does not expect.
A report by the LCG consultancy reveals just that The GDP per inhabitant accumulates two years of recoil And thus, at the level of those in 2005-2006, that is, two decades ago.
In the exercise of testing where the real economy is, the data of the industrial activity of 2024 mark 14% fall compared to those of 2011; Those of commerce say 10% also down in the same comparison and those of construction speak of 9%.
A well predictable ponytail, the blank industrial employment records calculated by the UIA Studies Center propose that December 24 versus December 23 throws 25,764 less job positions, or fallen in just one year. Against 2015, the serve hits 85,900 jobs. And scale to impressive 101,000 workers if the reference is the October 2013.
In construction, a sector that usually reacts to the changes, both up and down, the UIA numbers say 50,000 sources of work lost during 2024. Post in another way, they equals almost all workers occupied in the textile industry.
It is clear, in case it is necessary to clarify it, that the responsibilities for the worsening of the economic picture and, in addition, are shared by several governments although That does not imply that the faults are couples. And it should be clear, too, that it is part of the democratic game that Javier Milei has touched what touched him, as well as that which he touched is not resolved by shooting accusations to right and left but simply solving him.
Always to data fishing or datitos that allow the official or official discourse to be lifted, some analysts have found one and present it as the beginning of the delayed reactivation. Is from Emae, The Economic Estimator of INDEC and brand rises from 6.5% for January 25, on January 24.
The problem is that the data appears alone and alone, in the middle of a sea of negative numbers that shake the optimistic forecasts. Specifically: they refer to 11 months in low against 4 positive, since October 2024.
Worse is the case of 6% of the January 2025 industry, which peeked over after 19 consecutive months Barranca below. Not very different, the construction passed last year in red with four months below 20%. Finally, the trade, retail and wholesaler, notes 12 casualties since October 2023.
This is the performance of three sectors that today represent 31%, or the third part of GDP. That is, too opaque to walking reactivation forecasts and without waiting for a series of truly good records to confirm that the trend has changed; This time, for the good of the libertarians.