Between Wednesday and Thursday Donald Trump will redesign the map of the world trade strengthening that now everyone calls the “duties war“. On Wednesday 2 April, as has announced for more than a month, Trump will introduce the so -called mutual duties against any commercial partner who applies rates or imposes other commercial barriers on US products.
However, the actual implementation of these taxes will be required more time: six months or more from the date of the March announcement. In addition, Trump last Monday said that these duties could soften and exempt some nations. “I could give respite to many countries,” he said, while it is rumored that the countries directly affected by mutual duties could be about 15, among which this time it is practically certain that There will be Europe.
The Automotive Sector
The next day, Thursday 3 April, as announced last Wednesday, the duties of 25% on global cars imports in the United States will come into force. The duties will concern both the finished cars and the components for motor vehicles, while the parties compliant with the Usmca will remain free from the duties until the “trade department” will not establish a process to apply rates to their non -US content “.
According to the data of S&P Global Mobility, almost half of the new vehicles sold in the United States is imported, a figure that is equivalent to about seven million cars, for 50% from Canada and Mexico e Then especially from Japan, Sud Korea Ed Europe. Most car manufacturers keep stocks usually sufficient to last about two or three months.
“We will examine the inventory on the field and probably will pass about two months before the dealers begin to have a tariff inventory,” has announced a analyst in the S&P Global Mobility car sector. On average, within a few months, vehicle prices could increase by 11-12% to compensate for customs rates, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note.
The response of the affected countries
The mutual duties and those on cars will be added to those already introduced, which are not few, among which it is worth remembering the duties of 25% that the uses already apply on all imports of steel and aluminumto which the EU replied by imposing 50% rates on American whiskey, motorcycles and motorboats Starting from April 1st, and from mid -April further duties on chewing tires, poultry, soybeans and other goods. And to which Canada reacted by imposing rates on another 20.6 billion dollars of goods imported from the United States. In addition, on 3 March Trump increased the duties on Chinese products directed in the USA by 20%, causing retaliation by Beijing.
In any case, with the rates that will come or enter into force between Wednesday and Thursday we will know better what the impact of the war of duties will be. “The arrival of these data – he comments Vincenzo Bova, Step Recing MPS – worries about the impact that he can have on the economy. There is a risk of stagflation, because the duties will partly download the final prices and discourage consumption. And stagflation represents a danger to central banks that will face a double alarm: high inflation and weak growth “.
E Trump?
Markets and economists are questioned on his moves but are also convinced that at this point he will go on the duties. It will not stop, even if it is difficult to say what it will do. According to many analysts next week Trump could start a hard phase, hoping to open a negotiating phase, which could last several months, in which he will aim to improve the economic situation to obtain concrete results by the end of his mandate. It is difficult to say whether or not it will do it, but its future will depend on this bet, that is, if it will come out winning or not.