At the opening, the markets began with their left foot. Argentine bonds on Wall Street yield up to 3%, and jumps the country risk and exceeds the 800 basic points. Financial dollars also advance: the MEP dollar rises 1.96% to $ 1,327.91; and CCL 1.56%, at $ 1,328.67. The blue dollar rises 15 pesos and is located at $ 1,315.
This scenario, at some point it was expected to see, above all, the behavior of the world markets that collapse by the imminent implementation of Donald Trump’s tariffs. And at the local level, the sayings of the Minister of Economy Luis Caputo on the loan that Argentina will receive from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) do not finish convincing. Although for a local operator, “Market reaction this Monday is more effect“From the first than the second.
In this context, the country risk that had remained on Friday at the edge of the 800 points, finally this Monday exceeds that brand and is located In 867 basic points, its maximum since November 6, 2024. The index prepared by Banco JP Morgan had reached its lowest level in January 2025, when it touched the 550 basic points.
The doubts about the future of the exchange scheme and a possible devaluation -and although Caputo reiterated on Sunday night that “in no way the dollar is going to shoot” -, makes the currency jump in all its forms. And future contracts, except those of March, quote upwards. Those of April 2025 are located at $ 1,135 and those of August, to $ 1,288.
Volatility is marking the pace at the international level, and provided that this happens there is what In the market call the “Fly to Quality” or jump to quality, It is when investors withdraw from risk assets and look for more stable coverage.
With everything while the bonds are accentuating their fall: The Global 2035 loses 2.5%; followed by the Global 2046 that yields 2.2%; and the Global 2038, 2.1%. Others that are dyed red are the Argentine papers that are quoted abroad, known as ADR’s, They fall generalized up to 5.5% from the free market; Supervielle Group, 5.2%; Galicia Financial Group, 4.8%; and Telecom Argentina, 4.6%. Last Thursday and after days of red numbers, the market had a glimpse of change after the announcement of Caputo that revealed that the amount that the Government negotiated With the technical staff of the International Monetary Fund is US $ 20,000 million. But it lasted little, the foul that same day of guarantee from the agency made the local market stumble. We had to wait a day for the very organism to be guaranteed that the negotiations were advanced and in the same tune the government announced.
On Sunday, at night, in an interview at LN+, Caputo added more data. In addition to ratifying that they requested a loan for US $ 20,000 million, he indicated that the Government requested that they make a high initial disbursement (greater than 40%). “The first disbursement quota is important because the BCRA is very decapitalized,” said the official and acknowledged that there is no precedent that the fund “Make a very high initial disbursement”as they intend from Casa Rosada for the Argentine case.
Analysts were anticipating this scenario of greater volatility for the week that starts. In this regard, from Outlier they said: “An interview was known at the head of the mecon in A new attempt to anchor monetary and exchange expectations. “
At the international level, from the consultant they warned that “the uncertainty is on the external level in the prior to April 2, which was marked by the Trump administration how the day D for reciprocal tariffs and with respect to which the White House has been raising the bet.” Although, it is not the only thing that impacts from the external front: “In the middle conversations with Russia for Peace in Ukraine does not march as planned. The front with Iran also adds tension, with Trump threatening Tehran with sanctions and bombings if he does not reach an agreement by nuclear program. ”
All external looks are on the Trump effect, especially because this week it is expected that on April 2 it will announce its global tariff program that will impact specific sectors such as the pharmacist, the semiconductor and the automotive.
On the first day of the week, Tokyo’s bag closed on Monday with a strong fall of more than 4%in its main index, the Nikkei. This is its most pronounced collapse since September last year, dragged by the bad results in Wall Street at the end of last week and the fear of the new tariffs of the United States to the automotive industry.
In Europe, the main markets also operate, although the falls are more moderate at the start of the day. However, places like those of Paris, Berlin and London have already registered declines of more than 1%.
Last week it was marked in the United States by economic uncertainty before the commercial war unleashed by the president’s tariff policy, Donald Trump.
“International financial markets are going through a day of deep uncertainty and volatility, reflecting the collateral effects generated by political decisions, geopolitical conflicts and mixed macroeconomic data in the main economies of the world. The United States leads global concerns, with economic indicators that indicate clear recessive tendencies, combined with persistent inflationary pressures,” he says in a day analysis of the day Max Capital.