Although President Claudia Sheinbaum has maintained a position Friendly
Faced with Donald Trump’s threats and has offered cooperation, Mexico has a good negotiation capacity, so the application of tariffs would be A shot in the foot
For the United States, said Gabriel Casillas, chief economist of Barclays.
In a press conference via remote, the investment bank specialist explained that although Trump argues that his external sector is small, it is actually extremely important for many companies, which would be strongly affected.
The test, said Casillas, is in what happened during Trump’s first mandate, when he imposed a tariff on aluminum imports from Mexico, to which the government responded with rates in specific products such as cheese, grapes, blueberries and bourbon, which caused US producers to press to remove the measure.
In addition, the English bank specialist continued, tariffs would cause immediate depreciation of the exchange rate, which would compensate for a good part of the affectation, given that Mexican companies would receive more weights for their sales to the United States.
After a series of postponements, this Wednesday Donald Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs on its commercial partners, including Mexico and Canada, which it imposed last week in the automobile sector and before steel and aluminum.
For its part, the Swiss Bank UBS pointed out in a report that Mexico could experience a slowdown or even a contraction this year for the tariffs that Trump intends to implement; However, it is unlikely that this causes an economic or financial crisis. Mexico’s macroeconomic foundations are significantly more solid, which reduces the probability of a crisis similar to past episodes
he said.
The UBS growth forecast for Mexico this year is practically null. However, it is essential to differentiate between a cyclical recession and an economic and financial crisis throughout its extension
. He explained that economists often define a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth during which companies have difficulties, consumers limit their expense and the dynamics of the labor market tends to weaken.