For fiscal policy in Mexico, the volatility of financial markets will be decisive this year, as swings will be observed of the exchange rate and a drastic drop in the price of oil, Víctor Gómez, an economist in chief of Finamex Casa de Bolsa.
He explained that an environment of greater volatility of the dollar, like the current one, makes the Mexican currency more fragile.
For its part, the decrease in oil prices will affect the margin of fiscal maneuver, which will close if the average price is lower.
In addition to the above, the Mexican economy started badly in January, and although it will improve slightly in the course of 2025, local uncertainty and tariff Biva analysis.
The perception of Finamex is concentrated in the fiscal part. Market volatility will be key. On the one hand, we saw the exchange rate very strong after the first announcement; Then he weakened a little; Then, with the collapse of the bags and the increase in rates, it goes everywhere. Let’s see more depreciation at the end of the year
said Gomez.
Only net speculative positions, which anticipate an appreciation of the Mexican weight, dropped for the second consecutive week in the Chicago futures market.
Last week there were 39 thousand 100 contracts, each of 500 thousand pesos, 23.5 percent less or 12 thousand contracts less than in the previous weekly report. It was the lowest figure since the week that ended on March 21, 2025.
The challenge for tax authorities is to maintain the collection pace. I do not know how much they will help the digitalization tools they have put, but the cuts to spending in complicated areas go online.
He added that despite the scenario of moderate recession, if the finances are maintained where they are possible that the fiscal part generates stability. The main challenge is in regard to oil, whose prices are not controlled, and in the indebted part, the exchange rate behaves well and will not move away from what they estimate, 52 percent of GDP. However, greater fragility of the weight could press the balance of the debt, the analyst reiterated.