The Cereal Bag launched the Fine Campaign 2025/26 presenting the first estimates for wheat and barley for the next cycle.
With a climate that is favorable for planting, and with an economic equation that allows maintaining the average technological proposals, The wheat area is expected to reach 6.7 million hectares, with an estimated production of 20.5 million tons. While the surface destined for barley is located at 1.3 million hectares, with a projected production of 5.1 million tons.
The presentation began with an analysis of the international context, made from INAI Foundation, by Maximiliano Moreno who stressed that this situation is currently characterized by strong uncertainty and volatility, which is called to impact trade flows and global value chains.
“The tensions derived from the tariff rises should be adjusted to the extent that the agreements between the US and other countries advance positively, during the negotiation window open for 90 days. The great uncertainty is how the escalation of tariffs between China and the US will evolve, theme that has acquired the expected centrality from the fact that the US Commercial.
Then Ramiro Costa Manager of economic studies of the entity indicated that The last global campaigns were very good at the productive level including wheat, although world stocks of this cereal are at least 10 years. This situation could be deepened in 2025/26, since consumption is expected to overcome production again, further reducing stock levels. Meanwhile, some of the main exporters project falls in their exportable volumes. In contrast, Brazil – the largest Argentine wheat buyer – anticipates a good local harvest, which could limit your need to import in the next campaign.
Then he referred to the climate scenario for the new campaign, indicating that The rainfall recorded in recent months were abundant over the entire agricultural area, and that allowed to recompose the water available on the ground. Faced with this scenario, the climate context is favorable to face the sowing of the fine.
As for the local context, he pointed out that the fine campaign 2025/26 is emerging with more favorable economic conditions for the producer. As for prices, andThe wheat is quite traded above last year (+3%), although there is still 5% below the average of the last five campaigns. However, costs improves the input-product relationship and allows to project a slight improvement in projected profitability. This scenario would be even more favorable if the reduction in export rights from 12% to 9% was maintained. In addition, a technology use is projected at least, and even somewhat higher, to the last campaign, which reinforces the positive productive perspectives.
During the presentation, it was stressed that, In the last ten years, Argentina has maintained a relatively stable wheat exports level with an average of 10 million tons per year, while other exporting countries continue to expand their participation. This dynamic has led to a gradual loss of Argentine participation in world trade. Looking ahead, moderate growth in Argentine exports is expected, although strongly conditioned by the competence of other origins.
This scenario exposes the need to deepen changes that improve the country’s competitiveness. In recent months, important advances have been observed in macroeconomic stability and deregulations that allowed to gain efficiency and reduce costs. That path, favorable, must continue to consolidate the leap that the Argentine agriculture is in a position to give.
Finally, when presenting the economic contribution figures of both chains, Ramiro Costa, stressed that the added value of wheat and barley chains is estimated at 4,723 million dollars, which represents an increase of 31% compared to the previous campaign.
This increase can be attributed, in part, to the expansion of the cultivated area and the volume produced, as well as to the positive effect of the relationship between wheat prices and their production costs. Additionally, It is projected that exports of these cereals experience an improvement of 15%, reaching a value of 4,225 million dollars.
The closing of the event was in charge of José Martins President of the Cereal Stock Exchange, who positively valued some recent measures of the Argentine government such as the exit of the stocks, the exchange unification and the overbourocratization, considering them forward steps for the normalization of the country and their ability to compete with other countries in the region. Despite this, he points out that there are still things to do, especially in everything related to the tax burden and the need to encourage investment and production to achieve sustainable development