Just over a third of the deposits that savers and companies have in banks It is denominated in dollars and has continued to grow since the electionsdespite some exchange rate stability and the fact that dollarization pressure has eased in recent weeks.
The most recent data from the Central Bank shows that private sector deposits in foreign currency hit a record of US$35,540 milliona number that has no priors in the banking system. In the last ten days, there was even an increase of US$ 500 million more.
The account made by the BCRA includes both people and companies. In general terms, it is estimated that the 60% of these dollar deposits correspond to savers and the rest to legal entities, according to sector sources.
For this reason, the banking sector assures that the record figure may include a sustained demand for dollar bills by savers, although there is a consensus in the market that in November it was lower than in October.
Also responds to companies that obtained financing abroad through the issuance of debt in dollars in the international market. These currencies enter the local financial system and are deposited in banks, which increases the global number of deposits in hard currency.
The BCRA information also reveals that, of this total of deposits in dollars, the majority (US$27,185 million) are deposited in savings bankswhich do not accrue any interest. At zero rate, they are dollars that lose value when considering that the North American currency also depreciates due to inflation in the United States, which is around 3% annually.
The other US$7.9 billion are deposited at fixed term, that does yield interest. Official data show that, on average, fixed terms in dollars pay 2.21% annual interest, mainly those that are deposited for more than 60 days (2.67% annually).
There was a marked growth in the remuneration that banks offer their clients for balances in US currency: at the beginning of the year it was only 0.42% annually. Banco Nación, in one year, pays 5% annually. As a comparison, a North American Treasury bond has a yield of 4% per year.
In a broader zoom, the amount of dollar deposits in the banking system began to grow strongly since mid-April. The key fact was the end of the exchange rate for peoplewho since that month began a process of dollarization of savings very pronounced during the pre-election period.
The purchase of dollar bills was so marked that the BCRA described it as “unprecedented.” For individuals, between April and the end of September purchases were more than US$24 billion. About half of that demand was then sold in the MEP dollar market to make “financial currency”, a mechanism that allowed companies to bypass exchange restrictions.
This dollarization process advanced at a faster pace than the number of dollar deposits. Macroview, the consultancy Carlos Melconianestimates that Only half of the foreign currency that savers bought remained within the system.
From one of the main commercial banks they assured that an additional explanation for the increase in dollar deposits is that there are clients who prefer to have their currencies in the bank to make some payments in foreign currency, such as car or tourism purchases. “Certain sectors began to receive part of their collection in dollars, which also led to more deposits in the system,” they explained from one entity.
The proportion of dollar deposits compared to the total in banks is almost 35% and remains at the highest levels since the change of Government. The Minister of Economy Luis Caputo He risked, days before the elections, that this situation would begin to reverse after the elections to the extent that people or companies sell dollars to obtain pesos and face the last expenses of the year.
He even mentioned that according to history in the Argentine economy, when the level of dollarization of deposits reaches a level like the current one, the Subsequent dedollarization can cause the exchange rate to fall between 10 and 20 percent.