Arrow 3 will become operational in Germany, and the market is talking about the orders on the way

Boaz Levy, who previously served as the Chief Engineer of the Arrow, the head of the program, and currently serves as the CEO of the Aerospace Industry, closes several circles – professional and personal: “Despite two difficult years for the people of Israel and the State of Israel, we worked day and night to meet the deadlines. Many people worked in very difficult conditions in order to meet the supply of the systems. When the Germans signed they knew they were buying a good system, but after the last two years they were more impressed.

“As the head of the Arrow 3 program, I led it from an idea to intercept at a higher level, and this proved itself in the war against the Houthis and against Iran. The other circle is personal: I am a second generation of the Holocaust, and Jewish citizens who lived through the Holocaust now see how precisely in Germany, where the first ballistic missile was invented, we are deploying the ultimate torture on a global level.”

Interceptor and drone deals on the way

The Israeli system that proved itself in the Iron Swords War was purchased in a historic deal in 2023, even before the war, for about 3.5 billion dollars. To this deal, as recently revealed in Globes, additional deals with the aerospace industry for the purchase of interceptors and drones are expected to be added, which are expected to add up to several billions more. “This is nothing short of amazing,” says Brigadier General (Ret.) Ran Kochav, former commander of Israel’s air defense system, and now an international expert on multi-layered air defense.

Arrow 3, a defense system jointly developed by the “Wall” Directorate at the Ministry of Defense and the American Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and by the Aerospace Industry, will be added to Germany’s multi-layered defense system that is based on systems produced by various countries. The Israeli one will protect against ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, and will be located above the other systems.

Ran Kochav defines Arrow 3 as a “suicide spacecraft”: “The ability to hit iron with iron (Hit-to-Kill) outside the atmosphere, in space, at hypersonic speeds, is science fiction that has become a reality thanks to Israeli engineers, and this is the place to salute the engineers of the MLM plant of the Aerospace Industry, the people of Elta, the manufacturers of the most sophisticated radar in the world, and the director of ‘Homa’ at the PAAT. I usually applaud the female and male fighters of the HNA and now it is right to mention the engineers of the aerospace industry: these people, they are the unknown fighters who save lives.”

Competition in the various interception ranges

For ballistic missiles inside the atmosphere, the Germans will continue to use other systems such as Patriot made by the American Raytheon. In the medium term, the German-Swedish IRIS-T system is used, and in the short term, various systems such as Stinger are used.

The situation between the Israeli and American companies is intriguing because it is a business partnership and rivalry at the same time. While the United States provides half a billion dollars for research and development in the field of air defense as part of the Memorandum of Understanding with Israel, American companies take part in projects such as the system that worked the hardest of all in the war, Iron Dome, and Arrow 3. However, there are also business rivals, such as Lockheed Martin.

“A fearsome struggle between the world’s defense industries”

Kochav, who served among other things as the commander of the Arrow unit in the past, also referred to the consequences of the war in Ukraine on the demand for Israeli systems. According to him, “there is an acute need, which stems from the view of the two active conflicts: in Israel and in Europe. The field of air defense has become a firm struggle between industries in the world, but the Israeli security system, including the aerospace industry and the air defense system, has operational experience and engineering knowledge that is not found anywhere in the world.”

Germany’s diverse defense system largely reflects conclusions that emerge from an article authored by Brigadier General Kochav before his release from the IDF together with Dr. Siddharth Kaushal as part of the Royal National Security Institute (RUSI).

As since October 7 Israel has been dealing with the threats of rockets, missiles and UAVs with a multi-layered array that includes the Iron Dome, David’s Slingshot, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, the authors point out that this is required as an interli part everywhere in the face of the modern threat.

At the same time, in a world where we are turning to an inclusive armaments economy, for example, in Israel with the Israeli Or Eitan system for laser defense – the former commander of the Israeli air defense system and Dr. Kaushal recommend planning the interceptors in such a way that it is necessary to adapt dedicated armaments to the target so that the arrow missiles (2-3-4-5) are invested in the most challenging targets.

“The historic handover this week is also the closing of a circle for me – as a former commander of the unit and of the entire formation, and as a researcher who examined these threats in the international academic arena, especially in the European context,” says Kochav. “The solution that Germany is adopting today is a direct application of the lessons we analyzed at RUSI: active defense, a lethal upper layer, and a comprehensive systemic vision.”

The big gap between success in Ukraine and Israel

Israel’s essential advantage is reflected in the connection between a growing international need for air defense and successful Israeli operational experience that has no equal in the world. In an article authored by Dr. Kaushal at the RUSI Institute with Sam Krany-Evans, the two cited data published by the Ukrainian researcher Petro Ivanyuk and verified by the CSIS Institute, that from the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 until October 24 of this year, the Ukrainian air defense system was able to intercept only 24% of 939 Russian Iskander and Kinzel missiles that were launched into their territory. For the purpose of comparison, In the operation with the dog, the Israeli air defense system intercepted about 84% of the Iranian ballistic missiles, when about 63 missiles “only” managed to penetrate. Arrow 3, of course, also proved itself in the massive Iranian missile attacks in April and October last year.

Therefore, there is no reason to be surprised that Eastern and even Northern European countries are interested in and even purchase Israeli air defense systems. One of the first and most prominent of them was Finland, which borders Russia and purchased Rafael’s David Slingshot for about 366 million dollars. Similar to Pressure 3, this deal was closed even before the war, thanks to an unusual tender even in terms of Israeli air defense technologies: out of ten international companies at the beginning of the journey, two Israelis reached the final stage – Rafael with David’s Slingshot and the Aerospace Industry with Barak MX.

David and Spider slingshot: a breakthrough in the air defense market

During Iron Swords, David’s slingshot was used in all medium-range combat arenas, which led to increased interest in it. The system is intriguing on the world stage both because of its maneuverability, because of its relevance to missiles and UAVs, and because of the cost of the interceptors: while the Patriot PAC 3 costs 6 million dollars, the David slingshot is estimated to be about one-sixth the price. In general, the prices of Israeli interceptors – of all types – are immeasurably cheaper compared to their counterparts in the world.

The uniqueness of Israeli air defense technologies is that it is not necessarily necessary for a system to be an integral part of the IDF’s array in order for it to be in demand. The Rafael Spider system has been sold over the years to countries, according to publications, such as the Czech Republic, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, India and Azerbaijan, while it is designed to intercept drones, aircraft, helicopters and short-range ballistic missiles using two families of interceptors manufactured Raphael: PYTHON and DERBY.

To all these was added last June, when the war was still in progress, Romania with a decision to purchase Spider for about 2.2 billion dollars. The tender won by Rafael was approved by the Parliament in Bucharest in 2023, and the purchase process began in 2023. Beyond the actual deal that has not yet been signed and its high value, Rafael recorded an achievement in the actual business rivals that it overcame in the tender: the Korean company Lig NEX1 was excluded from the process already last year, due to problems in the tender documents, but significant ones were the European giant MBDA and the German Diehl company. Paris-headquartered MBDA proposed the Mistral 3, while it managed IRIS.

Arrow 3 is expected to integrate into the “European Sky Shield” (ESSI) initiative and protect not only Berlin, but a wide area on the continent. Along with the deployment of additional Israeli systems in the countries of the European Union, the question arises as to whether Europe will succeed in establishing a regional multi-layered defense system, similar to the system built by Israel.

Brigadier General (ret.) Ran Kochav estimates that the establishment of a European multi-layered defense system under the control of NATO or the European Union may take between 5 and 15 years. According to him, “Israel is further from Iran than Germany is from Moscow, so advanced air defense systems are required.”