At the start of the last month of the year, the market’s attention is focused on the payment of US$ 1,000 million what the Central Bank will do this Monday to cancel the debt with importers accumulated until the end of 2023. The disbursement will affect the organization’s reserves and in the City they already take for granted that With this movement the Government will not be able to meet the goal agreed with the IMF.
In parallel, all eyes look towards Luis Caputo, that finishes designing the financial strategy through which Argentina will be able to face the mega debt maturity scheduled for next month. The country must cancel US$4.2 billion with international bondholders on January 9.
This Monday’s payment, although it will not completely translate into a one-to-one drop in reserves because part of the dollars were already accounted for within the liabilities of the BCRA itselfit will also imply relevant drainage. In the City, operators and investment banks already discount that this movement will make it practically impossible for Argentina to meet the reserve accumulation goal agreed with the IMF this year.
Even so, some analysts emphasize that December is usually a favorable month for the Treasury position: due to the seasonality of the demand for money, due to higher tax revenues and the possibility of intervening in the market if the commercial flow stabilizes. Translated: Even with the pressure of paying importers, the Government could find windows to buy back dollars and alleviate the exchange front.
PPI analysts pointed out: millions to the BCRA; “December could deepen purchases in the market and, at the same time, reduce the need to buy from the BCRA. Two factors point in that direction.” Among the reasons for this hypothesis they listed, a sharp increase in seasonal demand for money in the last month of the year. “We do not rule out that the Treasury will take advantage of the momentum to acquire reserves instead of letting the exchange rate be pressured downward,” they stated.
“On the other hand, December does not present relevant maturities for the Treasury (less than US$ 300 million), thus limiting the need to resort to the Central to cover obligations, which will avoid a deterioration of the net reserves position due to this factor.”
Meanwhile, the underlying tension is on the next great financial challenge: the mega maturity of US$ 4.2 billion in global bonds that Argentina will have to face on January 9.
For these hours, Luis Caputo finishes outlining the strategy to cover that commitment. Among the alternatives being considered in the market are the use of Treasury dollar balances, new operations with multilateral organizations, possible selective exchanges or some type of coordinated maneuver with the Central Bank.
The January payment is seen as the first relevant test of the year and it could set the tone of the market for the first months of 2026. Therefore, the official strategy to go through it smoothly will be key to sustaining the process of lowering the country risk that the Government seeks to consolidate.