VN-Index dropped sharply by 52 points due to increased interest rates and net selling

At the end of the trading session on December 12, VN-Index, the index representing the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE), decreased 52 points, approaching 1,647. This is the strongest correction of the market since October 20. The total trading value on HoSE reached nearly 24,700 billion VND, an increase of 8,400 billion VND compared to yesterday.

Evaluating this down session, Mr. Bui Cong Toan, VNDirect Securities consultant, said that the adjustment came as a surprise to many individual investors, because the VN-Index is moving in the opposite direction of world stocks. After the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced interest rates for the third time this year, by 25 basis points (0.25%) on December 11, to 3.5-3.75%, world stocks progressed positively.

In the US, the Dow Jones index (including 30 major stocks) increased 646.26 points, equivalent to 1.34%, closing at 48,704.01 points – a new record. S&P 500 – the index representing the 500 largest capitalized companies in the US – increased 0.21%, closing at 6,901.00 points, the highest ever. Other markets such as Japan, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore and Seoul also went up today.

Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Yuanta Vietnam Securities’ Individual Customer Research and Development Department, explained that this decline was partly due to the less positive performance of Vingroup’s “family” stocks, including VIC, VHM, VPL, VRE. This expert analyzed the market’s increasing momentum in the late November – early December period with a large contribution from this group of stocks, while other industries almost went sideways. However, when these 4 codes adjusted, the whole market’s score also decreased.

In the first week of December, VN-Index increased 50 points, to 1,741 points, and three stocks VIC, VHM, VPL contributed more than 20 points. However, today this group caused the market to lose over 11 points.

Mr. Tran Quoc Toan, Director of Branch 2 – headquarters of Mirae Asset Securities Joint Stock Company, said that investors’ cautious psychology is one of the main reasons. “The lack of positive information at the end of the year, along with declining liquidity, shows that investors are ‘afraid’ to pour money into stocks,” Mr. Toan said.

Sharing the same opinion, VNDirect Securities consultant Bui Cong Toan said that market liquidity has recently maintained a low level of around 20,000 billion VND per session. “There are times when it feels like no one is buying, no one is selling,” Mr. Toan said, adding that today’s “shake off” is to wait for new cash flow to enter the market.

According to data on HoSE, the average liquidity per session in December reached about 20,700 billion VND, down over 2,000 billion compared to the previous month. In addition, the average transaction value per session in December decreased by tens of percent compared to the level of over 30,000 billion VND that the market had in the period from July to October 2025.

Net selling pressure from foreign investors is also a reason why the market dropped sharply. Mirae Asset experts analyze that this move by foreign investors continues, while new cash flows have not yet participated, causing liquidity to decline and negatively impacting domestic investor psychology.

Since the beginning of the year, the group of foreign investors has net sold more than 125,000 billion VND on the Vietnamese stock market, the highest ever.

In addition, according to Mr. Nguyen The Minh, the recent increase in interest rates also negatively affects the stock market. “Banks raising interest rates makes many investors worry that regulators will tighten monetary policy,” an expert at Yuanta Securities analyzed.

Sharing the same opinion, Mr. Tran Quoc Toan said that banks raising short-term savings interest rates to ceiling levels has affected investor psychology.

In early December, a series of banks such as VIB, Sacombank, NamABank, OCB… listed short-term interest rates of less than 6 months at 4.75% per year (ceiling level prescribed by the State Bank). Previously, at the end of November, about 14 banks adjusted interest rates in an upward direction.

After the sharpest drop in nearly 2 months, VNDirect expert predicts that there will be widespread margin call pressure, leading to a scenario where the market bottoms in the second half of December. However, he believes that stocks are likely to rebound thanks to the momentum from the fourth quarter business results report, when 2025 is the year the average corporate profit is predicted to reach the best level since the Covid-19 epidemic.

In addition, investors can also expect foreign cash flow to respond after the upgrade will be activated in 2026.

Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) believes that there is a high probability that the struggles and shaking will continue in the next session, the lower support area is expected to be around 1,580-1,620 points.

“Under increasing short-term selling pressure, the downward inertia is expected to continue accompanied by wide fluctuations in the afternoon session,” VCBS forecasts.

VCBS analyzes on the daily chart, the relative strength index (RSI) continues to point down, along with increased liquidity, showing that supply pressure is still dominating the market trend. On the hourly chart, the RSI and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) continue to point down to the low point area, showing that corrective pressure continues and shows no signs of stopping.

In the current market context, VCBS experts recommend that investors prioritize risk management by proactively lowering leverage and patiently observing. Catching the bottom early at this time poses many risks as selling pressure continues. Instead, wait for a signal of balance before looking for new disbursement opportunities.