A ceasefire is coming? The summit that outlines what Ukraine will look like

German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz invited to Berlin the President of Ukraine Zelensky and then the leaders of the largest countries in the Union, together with the Prime Minister of Great Britain and the leaders of the European Union. At the last minute, Finnish President Alexander Staub, who is considered a popular figure on the American side (“the Trump whisperer” is a term in the European media), also joined. He rented a suite at the “Adlon” hotel and joined the talks. The most important presence, perhaps, was that of a pair of mediators on behalf of Trump – Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

The Berlin Conference attempted to achieve several goals. It was first and foremost a choreography with the participation of the heads of state of the Union intended to present a united front of Europe, and uncompromising support for Ukraine. It was also an attempt to establish “red lines” against the American proposal, and to show Washington and Moscow what things Kiev is not willing to compromise on, with European backing. And it was also an attempt by the German chancellor to establish his position as the one leading the divided and divided European Union in this process. “It was a conference that once again gave Europe a place at the discussion table,” wrote the German “Spiegel”.

The day after the war begins to brighten?

With helicopters in the air, divers in the improvement canals and a lot of security, the leaders entered and left the chancellor’s office, which is located near the German Bundestag, not far from the Brandenburg Gate and the “Adlon” hotel, which also became the scene of consultations. The lights in the bureau, the media reported, remained on until late at night. Lots of photos have been released: Zelensky is received by March, then the European leaders meet with the chancellor, and the pair of American brokers socialize with leaders and go into meetings. At one point on the second day, the entire Internet infrastructure of the German parliament collapsed and suspicion fell on a Russian cyber attack. After that it turned out that she just couldn’t handle the load.

What came out of the conference anyway? As part of the European efforts to take part in the discussions between Ukraine and the US, the “day after” scenario – in the event that the ceasefire agreement is imposed on all parties – began to take shape. For the first time, it was agreed in Berlin that the European countries would form an “international force” that would operate inside Ukraine, and not in neighboring countries. The force would be led by the European Union. In “American support”. Britain and France are expected to send troops to the proposed force, while Germany is still hesitating. Europe has tried to bring the Americans into the field as well, but the conference represents a renunciation of this ambition.

Also on the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine, it seems that even Zelensky himself is no longer talking about future membership in NATO, and will content himself with a commitment “in the style of Article 5 of the NATO Collective Defense Alliance”, according to which the US will come to the aid of Ukraine if it is attacked again. It is still unclear what this commitment includes, and if it is intelligence, diplomatic help, or as the Europeans want – military assistance.

The American side came to Berlin with a new proposal, which was defined as the “platinum route” – guarantees of a high level but for a limited time, and will be realized only in exchange for Ukrainian concessions. Mertz and Zelensky both praised the security guarantees agreed upon at the conference. But the Americans made it clear that this was an offer for a limited time, and that it would only be realized in exchange for Ukrainian concessions.

In addition, contrary to the American outline that called for reducing the Ukrainian army by about a third, the Berlin conference actually proposed to strengthen it. As part of the joint statement of the European leaders, the Ukrainian army should also include about 800,000 soldiers in the future, as it is today, and Europe will make sure that Ukraine has a “modern and strong army”.

Russian money, Ukrainian territories

The statement also refers to the reconstruction of Ukraine, which is now economically impoverished and financially supported by Europe, after nearly four years of war. It states that “Russia must compensate Ukraine” for the destruction caused to it. However, Europe is still divided on whether the frozen Russian financial assets, estimated at more than $250 billion, can be used for this purpose. The EU needed to allay Belgium’s concerns about a Russian lawsuit, which has already been filed, in order to get its consent to use the funds. The issue is expected to come up again at the summit of EU leaders this weekend.

On the evening of the signing of the joint statement, after a celebratory dinner, the leaders scattered a host of positive assessments. The message intended to leave Berlin was clear: another step on the way to a ceasefire and peace, as President Trump wants. To this end, they even apologize for the insults that Trump hurled at them a few days ago, when he called them “weak”, and promised to encourage the opposition in Europe as part of the new US security policy. In practice, Ukrainian sources told the German “Bild” that the main goal was not to upset Trump, to put Putin in front of a decision and to bide time.

The main problem remains the redistribution of territories in Ukraine – here there is really no agreement. The Americans demand that Kiev give up additional territories that it managed to defend in the Donbass, and it was reported that the two American representatives were clear in this regard. “There are still different positions regarding the territorial dialogue,” Zelensky admitted. President Zelensky himself acknowledged that “there are still different positions regarding the territorial dialogue”. It is possible that the issue will be postponed to more advanced stages in the negotiations and will even be brought to an internal Ukrainian referendum. The European message emerging from between the lines is that this is not a red line for them.

New hope for the Christmas miracle

In the end, it was mostly about optics. The EU can try to maximize its visibility, but Ukraine’s future will be decided in the White House, Moscow and Kyiv. The actual convening of the Berlin conference only started after Witkoff and Kushner agreed to come to Berlin, and not to continue the talks in Switzerland or the Gulf countries.

At the end of the dinner on Monday, Mertz pleaded with Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the fire during Christmas. “If the Russian leadership has any shred of human decency left, they should at least leave the population (in Ukraine) alone for a few days around Christmas,” Martz said. At this point, towards Moscow and Washington, all that is possible for him is to plead and hope, and move the ball to the Russian court. In this respect, it seems that the conference did the job: “It rekindled the hopes for a Christmas miracle,” the Tagusspiegel wrote this morning.