Domestic coffee prices decreased for 9 consecutive sessions

Compared to the beginning of last week, the current price has decreased by about 15% and is 30% lower than the same period last year. This development makes many farmers and agents more cautious in transactions.

A coffee dealer in Gia Lai said that due to the downward price trend, this year many garden owners chose to sell fresh coffee beans earlier than usual to limit risks. Currently, fresh coffee is traded around 21,000-21,500 VND per kg, about 3,000-4,000 VND per kg lower than at the beginning of the season. Green coffee, from 102,000 VND per kg on December 11, is now only 88,000-89,000 VND per kg (depending on the region).

The domestic decrease occurred in parallel with the downward trend in the world market. At the end of the trading session last night and early morning of December 19 Vietnam time, the price of robusta coffee on the London floor (UK) decreased by 28-62 USD per ton, while arabica coffee on the New York floor (USA) decreased slightly by less than 1%.

In the reference term delivered in March 2026, robusta price decreased by 28 USD per ton, to 3,677 USD. In the last 6 sessions, this item has lost up to 461 USD per ton. However, at some times, the green color still reappeared on the floor, showing that bottom-catching buying pressure had begun but was not strong enough to reverse the trend. The price of Arabica coffee delivered in March 2026 also decreased by 50 USD per ton, to 7,610 USD.

According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), coffee prices have decreased recently due to the combined impact of many factors, including the adjustment of US trade policies towards agricultural products that cannot be produced themselves such as coffee.

Specifically, on November 20, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order exempting 40% import tax on a number of food products from Brazil, including coffee, beef, cocoa and fruit. According to information from the White House, the decree takes effect from November 13 and allows tax refunds for amounts paid after this time. Previously, in early July, the US announced an increase in tariffs on Brazilian goods from 10% to 50%.

According to Mr. Hai, the US removal of tariffs on Brazilian coffee increased supply expectations, contributing to the market cooling down after a period of prolonged price increases.

In addition to policy factors, supply from the world’s two largest coffee producing countries is showing signs of improvement. In Brazil, the weather is more favorable, with increased rainfall after a dry period, increasing expectations for next crop’s output. In Vietnam, the storm has ended, harvesting conditions are favorable and this crop’s output is forecast to increase by about 5% compared to the previous year.

Regarding the future trend, Mr. Hai forecasts that coffee prices may continue to adjust but will not decrease as deeply as in previous cycles. The price level is likely to fluctuate around 80,000 VND per kg, in the context of global coffee supply and demand remaining tense.

Regarding exports, Vicofa Chairman forecasts that Vietnam can export about 1.5 million tons of coffee throughout the year, thereby bringing in a record turnover of nearly 9 billion USD.

Assessing the impact on coffee growers, Mr. Hai said that maintaining high prices over the past two years has helped farmers improve their income and have the conditions to invest back in their gardens. This contributes to improving productivity and coffee quality compared to the previous period of low prices.

In the long term, he noted that coffee area is difficult to expand when agricultural land is subject to strong competition from more economically efficient crops such as durian. Therefore, instead of expanding the area, the coffee industry needs to focus on replanting old gardens, using new varieties with high productivity, quality and better adaptability to climate change.