China will only grow between 2.5% and 3% this year, specialists warn

Beijing. The Chinese economy will grow only between 2.5 and 3 percent in 2025, about half of the official forecast, due to the collapse of investment in fixed assets during the second half of the year, according to estimates by the specialist firm Rhodium Group.

However, Chinese officials are expected to announce that China has met its annual target of “around 5 percent” when they meet in March for their parliamentary session and unveil the next five-year plan; Likewise, the solidity of exports is expected to highlight despite the tariff war with the United States and weak domestic demand.

However, there will be an unaccounted loss of demand of around half a trillion dollars, according to a report released yesterday by Rhodium Group.

“History offers no examples of economies that have recorded 5 percent real gross domestic product growth while facing years of persistent deflation, such as China for 10 consecutive quarters. We doubt China will be the first,” the report added.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

If accurate, this shortfall could hinder Beijing’s ability to gauge the urgency with which it must act to avoid a serious slowdown or assess its negotiating strength in talks with US President Donald Trump to end a tariff war that has disrupted global supply chains.

In 2026, Rhodium Group estimated, the Chinese economy is on track to grow between 1 and 2.5 percent, much less than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast of 4.5 percent.

Keeps interest rates unchanged

China yesterday left benchmark lending rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, in line with market expectations.

The one-year prime rate (LPR) remained at 3 percent, while the five-year prime rate remained at 3.5 percent.