No comment: China’s government overstated GDP growth

According to the report, the unmeasured demand gap is around half a trillion dollars. China’s statistics office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Contradiction in official data

The authors point out a contradiction in the official data. Although these showed a decline in fixed investment, gross capital formation is still said to have made a positive contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). “The story of China’s economic growth in 2025 depends on whether investment only declined or collapsed in the second half of the year,” the report said. “History knows no examples of economies that have recorded five percent real GDP growth while, like China, facing sustained deflation for ten consecutive quarters. We doubt that China is the first.”

After a strong start to the year with an increase of 4.2 percent in the first quarter to June, fixed investment in roads, railways, apartments and factories slipped into the red and fell by 12.2 percent by October. According to the latest official data, they fell by 2.6 percent from January to November, mainly due to a 15.9 percent decline in real estate investment.

Rhodium Group: China’s economy will only grow 1 to 2.5 percent in 2026

For 2026, the Rhodium Group estimates growth in China’s economy at just 1 to 2.5 percent. This is well below the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast of 4.5 percent. “The miscalculation of China’s economy has gone on for too long,” said the think tank. “And always goes in the same direction of exaggeration.”