Family defaults at the lowest point in 10 years

The delinquency of bank loans by families is lower than 10 years ago. Data from the National Banking and Securities Commission compiled by the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) indicate that in 2015 the adjusted delinquency rate (Imora) of consumer credit was around 14.44 percent, while at the end of last September it was 10.54 percent.

The credit card default rate was at 16.58 percent and is now at 13.06; that of personal loans was 18.43 percent and today it is 12.59 percent; that of payroll loans was at 10.82 percent and dropped to 10.38 percent, and that of loans for vehicle purchases was at 3.98 percent and is currently at 2.81 percent.

The Imora measures the quality of the credit portfolio of banks and other financial institutions by calculating the percentage of overdue loans (overdue portfolio) plus penalties and write-offs as a proportion of the total portfolio and losses. It is an essential indicator of credit risk: a high Imora indicates greater risk for the institution.

In the last year, according to a report from the Bank of Mexico, the Imora of most consumer segments has been lower than the historical average 2012-2025.

However, so far this year, non-payment of loans has been increasing; In January the Imora was at 10.4 percent and today it is at 10.54 percent. That of credit cards went from 12.52 to 13.06 percent; that of personal loans, from 12.55 to 12.59, and that of automobile loans, from 2.46 to 2.81 percent. Only payroll has dropped from 10.86 to 10.38 percent.

According to the central bank, the decrease in the consumer confidence indicator is related to the increase in adjusted consumer credit delinquencies.

“The delinquency of the consumer credit portfolio granted by non-banking financial intermediaries and Infonacot, as a whole, increased slightly since the most recent report. For its part, delinquency in the Sofipo (Popular Financial Companies) and Socap (Cooperative Savings and Loan Companies) sectors remained relatively stable,” the report says.

It stands out that some Sofipo that use digital models apply write-offs and penalties on a regular basis, which keeps delinquency contained, but even so their Imora continues to increase.

For the Sofipo, the amount of haircuts and penalties applied during the last six months amounted to 10.3 percent of the average balance of the total consumer portfolio for the period.

Furthermore, an analysis of the credits of these institutions shows that the payments of those granted in recent semesters have begun to be delayed more quickly than those originated in previous semesters. On the other hand, the delinquency of some shows an upward trend since the beginning of 2024.

In the case of Sofipo, says the BdeM, this indicator has a positive correlation with unemployment, inflation and interest rates.