Peso still has room for appreciation, but the T-MEC will set the course: analysts

The new year could still offer room for revaluation for the Mexican peso, supported by global liquidity, the performance of the emerging market cycle and raw materials, analysts predict. However, the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) will be decisive for investment certainty, as it is the most notable event of the year.

After having reached the highest annual appreciation in 2025 since the free floating regime was in place in 1994 (13.8 percent), at 18.0080 pesos per dollar spotPaula Chaves, financial markets analyst at HF ​​Markets, predicts that in an orderly scenario, lower levels of the exchange rate are not ruled out, potentially close to 17 pesos per dollar, which would also configure more attractive areas for long-term positioning.

However, Chaves assured, “the magnitude and sustainability of this movement will depend on whether the internal macroeconomic environment manages to better accompany the external impulse.”

For the dollar, it is important that growth in the United States continues with lower inflationary pressures, and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which has indicated that the effect of tariffs should be diluted starting in the first quarter, reinforces a more flexible monetary policy scenario with greater global liquidity towards 2026.

“Although it will continue to function as a refuge asset (the dollar) in episodes of volatility, the increase in productivity, the moderation of inflation and an environment of less restrictive rates introduce a structural bias of weakness in the medium term, favoring the rotation of flows towards emerging markets and assets linked to the raw materials cycle,” said the HF Markets specialist.

For his part, Jaime Álvarez, vice president of investments at Skandia, asserted that the review of the T-MEC will be decisive for the certainty of the investment and the continuity of the nearshoring (the relocation of production chains), particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, energy and logistics infrastructure.

Likewise, the normalization of monetary policy, both in Mexico and in the United States, will play a central role in the definition of capital flows, the performance of the peso and the valuations of higher risk financial assets, such as stocks listed on the different stock exchanges.

At the local level, the economic impact of the 2026 World Cup will be added, which could boost tourism, consumption and investment in services and transportation. However, risks associated with the global slowdown, geopolitical tensions and financial volatility will persist. In this context, “2026 is shaping up to be a year with relevant opportunities, but one that will require prudent risk management, adequate diversification and a careful selection of projects and investments,” predicts Álvarez.

Treaty review

The negotiations and agreements regarding the treaty will be the most notable event of the year, because they will determine Mexico’s ability to ensure its commercial position before the United States, Canada and worldwide, said the GBM analysis area.

Likewise, it will seek to reinforce the country’s role as the main manufacturing center in the region and a key link in diversified supply chains. However, uncertainty will continue to affect the mood during the first part of the year while negotiations take place.

GBM predicts that the peso will fluctuate between 18.6 and 19.6 per dollar, with short-term volatility as the T-MEC review progresses. Some pressure could also arise from a rate differential as Banco de México cuts faster than the Fed.