Wall Street opened higher; Green screens in Europe

16:30

Green opening on Wall Street: Dow Jones strengthens by about 0.1%, S&P 500 rises by about half a percent and Nasdaq rises by about one percent.

15:30

Euro Stock 600 is up by half a percent, with most sectors and major exchanges trading in the green. The British FTSE 100 index rose by about 0.5% and reached the historic level of 10,000 points for the first time ever.

The STOXX 600 index ended 2025 with an increase of about 16%, which marks the third consecutive year of increases, led by bank stocks and an increase in regional security spending. The STOXX 50 has risen about 18% over the past year, with banks leading the rise with a 67% jump.

Shares of Be Semiconductor (Dutch semiconductor companies) and ASMI led the index, with gains of 9.6% and 6.1% respectively, after the US government granted an annual license to the world’s largest chipmaker TSMC to import American equipment to its facilities in China. ASML, Europe’s most valuable company, rose 4%.

Denmark’s Orsted rose about 3.6 percent after the company, the world’s largest developer of offshore wind, said it was appealing the U.S. government freeze on the license for the Revolution Wind project.

Shares of companies from the mining and defense sectors also posted gains today with Thyssenkrupp, Kongsberg Group, Saab and Rolls-Royce rising at least 3% during trading.

Gold prices rose 1.9% to $4,393.14 an ounce, while silver jumped 4.3% to $74.31 an ounce. Gold and silver posted their best annual performance since 1979.

Dow futures rose 192 points or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1%.

The total crypto market cap rose 1.2% to $3.08 trillion on January 2. Bitcoin was trading at $88,678 at press time, up 1.3% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is trading around $3,024 after an increase of about 1.6% in the last 24 hours.

The fear index in crypto rose to 34, moving from extreme fear to the fear zone, indicating a decrease in selling pressure from late December. Sentiment improved as macroeconomic pressures eased and growing expectations for US interest rate cuts later in 2026 restored risk appetite.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries stands at 4.155%, an increase of less than one basis point. The yield on the two-year bond is unchanged at 3.469%. The yield on the 30-year bond increased by one basis point to 4.84%.

12:49

Before pulling back a little, the British Potsey Index crossed the symbolic 10,000 point mark for the first time today, continuing the gains after a particularly strong year 2025. The index, which includes the most valuable blue chip companies in the UK – rose more than 1% and traded at a level of 10,034 points in the morning and opened the first trading day of the year in positive territory.

Analysts told CNBC late last year that while the speed with which the FTSE 100 reached the 10,000-point level was noteworthy, investors should remain cautious. “Crossing a significant round number in the index is psychologically important, but the foundations for the move must be solid so that the new level becomes a support floor rather than a glass ceiling for the index,” said Tony Meadows, chief investment officer at BRI Wealth Management.

Tesla is expected to report today on deliveries that may decrease by 15% in the current quarter, according to analysts’ estimates. Analysts estimate on average that Tesla will deliver 422,850 vehicles between October and December, compared to about 495,000 in the same period last year.

According to the forecasts published by Tesla, the company is on track to register a second consecutive annual decline in vehicle sales. The analysts expect an annual decrease of about 8% in 2025, to the level of 1.64 million vehicles, compared to 1.79 million.

The predictions come against the background of Tesla’s efforts to shift its activities towards autonomous vehicles and robotics. The car manufacturer launched a Robotaxis operation this year, and this month began testing driverless vehicles in the city of Austin, Texas.

Meanwhile, the Chinese automobile giant BYD is expected to dethrone Tesla today and become the largest electric vehicle manufacturer in the world in terms of annual sales. This milestone marks an extraordinary rise for BYD – a company that Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, used to belittle in the past and even laughed at its products in an interview with Bloomberg in 2011.

Based on the sales data already available, it seems almost certain that BYD will officially overtake Tesla. In a statement issued on Thursday, BYD said that sales of its battery-powered electric vehicles jumped by nearly 28% to 2.26 million units.

On Monday, Tesla published an average estimate of 1.6 million vehicle deliveries in 2025 – a decrease of about 8% compared to 2024 – which puts the company on track for a second annual decline in a row.

Famous investor Michael Barry said this week that he does not hold a short position on Tesla stock at this point, after calling the electric car maker “ridiculously overvalued.”

In a post on the X social network, Berry responded to a user who asked if he was betting against Tesla, writing: “I’m not short.”

“Big Short” also presented the same assessment of Tesla’s stock pricing to subscribers of his new, paid Substack newsletter earlier this month.

Barry recently made headlines for a short bet on the technology sector, saying that some of the largest companies in the US are using aggressive accounting practices to inflate alleged profits from the artificial intelligence boom.

Barry’s latest remarks about Tesla come shortly after the company took the unusual step of releasing delivery forecasts that appear to indicate a lower-than-expected outlook.

12:12

The increases in Europe continue. Putsy rises by about 0.6%, Dax adds to its value by about 0.5%, Kac rises at a similar level. In futures, the Nasdaq is up more than 1 percent.

10:30

Trading in European stock markets opened on the first trading day of the year with a positive trend. Putsi rises by about 0.5%, DAX adds to its value by about 0.3%, KAC registers gains of about 0.3%.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.2% with most major sectors and stock exchanges colored green. Mining stocks stood out with an increase of about 0.9%. During 2025 the index increased by almost 16%, in the third year in a row of annual increases.

The metals continued their upward trend from the end of 2025. Gold prices rose by 1.6% to $4,385.4 per ounce, silver prices jumped by more than 4.3% to $74.34 per ounce.

In Asia, trading also closed in a positive trend, with the Kospi closing at a new high.

08:10

This morning in Asia partial trading – no trading takes place in Japan and China. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng index rises by about 2.3%, in South Korea the Kospi rises by almost 2% and reached a new high, and in India the Nifty adds about 0.4% to its value.

Samsung rises more than 6% after John Young-Hyun, senior co-CEO in charge of chips and hardware solutions, said in his New Year’s speech that customers praise the next-generation high-bandwidth memory chips, he also said that they say “Samsung is back.”

Wall Street futures are trading higher this morning. In the afternoon, a new year will open in New York, and the market hopes that it will be no less good than the previous three.

On Wednesday, even though Wall Street was locked in losses and even though the “Santa Claus rally” had not yet arrived, Wall Street posted a third straight year of double-digit gains. The S&P 500 index rose by about 17% in 2025 and by about 82% in three years, the Nasdaq rose by 20% this year and by about 120% in those years, the Dow Jones, which rose by 13.5% this year, closes three years with a return of about 45%.

What’s more, many investment assets outside of giant stocks have begun to outperform. The commodity market enjoyed a particularly strong year, with gold rising more than 64% and silver jumping more than 141%.

Among other investment avenues, U.S. Treasuries posted their strongest annual gains since 2020, while gold and silver are on track for their best year since 1979. Crypto stood out as an outlier, with bitcoin facing an annual loss after erasing an earlier rally that took it to an all-time high in October.

However, the recent declines have been worrisome, as the last five trading days of the year and the first two days of the year, known as the “Santa Claus Rally” period, usually give stocks a final push towards the end of the year, so far that is not happening.

Investors enjoyed particularly impressive returns this year in a market that was driven by optimism about the enormous economic potential of artificial intelligence, and was also fueled by interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

But there were bumps in the road and the road was not smooth. Investors had to deal with volatility stemming from a variety of factors, including US trade policy, geopolitical tensions, concerns about high prices and uncertainty regarding the monetary policy path of the central banks and their independence.

In particular, the impressive recovery from the landslide seen in early April, after President Donald Trump’s announcement of the imposition of broad tariffs, is worth noting. The S&P 500 index was even at one point on the verge of entering a bear market, after falling by almost 19% from the record recorded in February and closing below the level of 5,000 points.

forecast

An optimistic consensus is forming in the major banks and investment houses: the American stock market will rise again in 2026, for the fourth year in a row, and will record the longest streak of gains in almost two decades.

However, there is no shortage of concerns about the risks threatening the bull market, which has pushed the S&P 500 index to an increase of about 90% since the low in October 2022. The artificial intelligence boom may fade, the economy – and the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve, may surprise negatively, and the second year of President Donald Trump may bring with it even more unexpected shocks than the first.

Still, after three years in which the overwhelming rally in the stock market turned any bearish forecast into a joke, sell-side strategists are almost unanimously optimistic. The average end-of-year forecast for the S&P 500 suggests a further increase of about 9% next year. None of the 21 forecasts reviewed by Bloomberg predicts a decrease in the index.

Sell-Side Strategists are analysts and strategists who work in financial entities that sell financial services, and do not manage money directly for clients.

“The pessimists have just been wrong for so long that people are kind of tired of that shtick,” said veteran market strategist and well-known optimist Ed Jordani. He estimates that the S&P will end next year at a level of 7,700 points, an increase of about 11% compared to Friday’s close, but he also admits that the lack of dissenting voices causes him some discomfort. “This is where my counterintuitive instincts come into play: things have been going in my favor for so long, it’s a little worrying that everyone around me has become optimistic,” he said. “Pessimism just went out of fashion.”

If the forecasts of Wall Street analysts come true in 2026, the stock market is facing the longest streak of annual gains since the period before the global financial crisis. The highest targets among the forecasts, if achieved, would also mark the first time the S&P 500 has posted four consecutive years of double-digit returns since the dot-com bubble of the 1990s.

Christopher Harvey, a veteran strategist who moved to CIBC Capital Markets from Wells Fargo this year was one of the few who stuck to his forecast throughout the year’s volatility and expected the S&P 500 to end the year at 7,007 points and he was right. The index closed on Friday around 6,930 points, only about 1% below its estimate.

Harvey estimates that the index will end 2026 at a level of 7,450 points, which reflects an increase of about 8%. However, according to him, “people are sleeping on quite a few macroeconomic risks”. Among them: the possibility that the Federal Reserve will leave the interest rate unchanged for a longer time than expected by the markets; an American move to raise tariffs on Canada or Mexico; Or managers in companies who will try to lower profit expectations after a particularly strong period. “It could start to undermine the existing order,” he said.

JP Morgan also abandoned the cautious approach that characterized them towards 2026, and expect the S&P to rise to the level of 7,500 points, against a background of strong corporate profits and lower interest rates. Mislav Matyka, head of the company’s global and European equity strategy, said that the optimism also rests on sustainable growth, moderation in inflation and the bet that the surge in artificial intelligence stocks reflects a potential economic transformation – and not a bubble that is about to burst. “If the economy is weaker than we estimate, the stock market will not necessarily react negatively,” he said. “Everything will depend on the Fed doing the hard work.”

While there are no apocalyptic predictions for the US stock market next year, Savita Subramanian of Bank of America is among the few voices calling for caution. According to her, the index will rise to 7,100 points in 2026, but the increase will be limited due to high pricing levels. However, the breadth of bullish and bearish scenarios it presents reflect the level of uncertainty: a recession could knock stocks down by about 20%, while much higher than expected earnings could push them up as much as 25%.