At the beginning of 2026, there are the most promising signs in the air so far that the war in Ukraine, which has already stretched to four years, is on its way to a negotiated solution.
In Kyiv, the mood is cautiously optimistic, or at least that is how it is officially communicated. At the turn of the year, 90 percent of the peace agreement was ready, said the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi. The biggest obstacle is still Russia’s territorial claims.
The threat continues in Moscow. President of Russia Vladimir Putin declared in his New Year’s speech that he believes in war victory. The master of the Kremlin once again painted the war in Ukraine as part of the Russian people’s existential struggle for their future.
Russia’s guilt will not be forgotten
Russia has been struggling with this at the expense of its national economy. Its atmosphere is one of the best barometers for guessing Putin’s willingness to negotiate. Inflation has been brought down, but growth continues to be anemic and companies have fallen into pessimism. The banking crisis the risk increases dramatically.
When the war ends one day, Russia’s guilt will not be forgotten. It is necessary to keep the memory sharp even when encouraging the factors that made it possible for Russia to go to war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
The absolutely central factor is China.
The Asian economic giant could have cut off the wings of Putin’s military economy at any point. Instead, it has only increased its position as Russia’s most important bilateral trading partner.
The Chinese Communist Party has given its unspoken blessing to the carnage because it shares large-scale interests with the Kremlin.
Putinism’s preoccupation with the existential crisis and the neo-imperialism offered as a cure suit Beijing well, as they pit Russia against the Western, democratic world.
China wants to poke the West
Officially, China is pursuing a so-called multipolar world order. In practice, it’s mainly a question of pecking the United States, both financially and increasingly also militarily. A painstakingly built mineral lever reveals how bad the west is anticipated the Chinese threat.
We are hooked on China, and badly.
At the end of the year, the EU had to ask Beijing for those critical to the arms industry rare earth metals. We are hooked on China, and badly. This easily gives rise to political caution, if not even complacency, towards the blackmailer.
The situation is not only embarrassing but also dangerous. Government agencies and interest organizations may feel pressure to talk about China in a flattering way, but this should not be allowed to obscure the facts. Citizens and companies have a moral obligation to think about what kind of actions each can take to reduce dependence on China.