For the December that has just ended, private forecasts place inflation in a range that goes from 2.3% and 2.6%. These estimates project an annual close of around 31%, the lowest level for the Consumer Price Index since 2017.
The survey of C&T retail prices for the GBA region shows an increase of 2.6% in December, exceeding the 2.5% recorded by the INDEC in November. “If this variation was validated in the INDEC data, inflation in 2025 would have been 31.2%,” indicates the consultancy. To find a lower level you have to go back to 2017 when the CPI had marked 24.8%.
“Meat once again played a fundamental role in the dynamics of the month, as had happened in November and, to a lesser extent, in October: rose 8% in December. This caused the item of food consumed at home to accelerate to 3% monthly, the highest rate of increase since March, despite a sharp decline in vegetables,” said Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T.
In this measurement, drinks increased somewhat more, around 4%. So, Food and beverages jumped 3% and was the second item with the highest increase.
Miscellaneous goods and services was the item with the greatest increase in the month, close to 5%with a boost from both cigarettes and toiletries and beauty items.
“Recreation also rose above the average, a usual behavior in December due to the fact that the items linked to tourism experience a peak due to the beginning of the summer holidays,” detailed C&T.
With an increase of 2.7%, Transportation and communications moderated slightly compared to November due to a lower increase in fuel and public transportation. On the contrary, car prices maintained their dynamism.
Education, housing and health presented increases similar to those of November and somewhat below the average. At the same time, Clothing began to reflect the beginning of liquidations and remained stable.
Also The measurement by the Libertad y Progreso Foundation marked an advance of 2.6%, as did that of the consulting firm Equilibra.directed by Martín Rapetti. For their part, both EcoGo, GMA Capital and Orlando Ferreres and associates estimate it at 2,5%.
“According to the CPI-OJF (GBA), inflation in December was 2.5% monthly and registered an interannual growth of 30.6%. On the other hand, core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 2.8%, marking an increase of 27.4% annually,” the Ferreres Study points out.
The consulting firm Empiria predicts that the December record willIt will be somewhat less than the 2.5% in November.
The most optimistic estimate is that of the Market Expectations Survey (REM), which had calculated at the end of November that inflation this month would be 2.1%. The next REM with more updated projections will be published this Wednesday, January 7.
The December one will be the last index surveyed under the current system, since since January the baskets will be updated so that they reflect with greater certainty the current consumption of families.