The most immediate consequences of the US attack on Venezuela on Saturday are likely to be felt first and most strongly in Ukraine, not in Latin America.
This is the opinion of the visiting researcher of the European Policy Center (EPC). Chris Kremidas-Courtneyaccording to which the attack on Venezuela is part of a wider return to regional spheres of influence.
According to the researcher, the most important message of the attack is that the United States is now focusing on its own neighboring regions and at the same time the president Donald Trump’s the willingness to guarantee security elsewhere is increasingly fragile.
“All eyes are now on Moscow,” Kremidas-Courtney writes in her analysis.
He refers to a Brookings Institute researcher, a former White House intelligence specialist by Fiona Hill to the assessment that Venezuela is part of a secret agreement between Putin and Trump. Hilla talked about it to the United States Congress in 2019 and anticipates the Russian president Vladimir Putin to end his support for Venezuela if Donald Trump ends his own support for Ukraine.
This all fits with Trump’s comments at Saturday’s press conference. The US president emphasized that his country would reintroduce the Monroe Doctrine and emerge as the leading superpower in the Western Hemisphere.
“The world run by Vladimir Putin”
The Monroe Doctrine divides the globe into western and eastern halves and emphasizes separately that the United States should not interfere in European affairs.
“This is a world that Vladimir Putin has been driving for a long time,” Kremidas-Courtney reminds us.
Also director and analyst of the prestigious think tank Chatham House Bronwen Maddox predicts that Russia will use the actions of the United States to strengthen the basis for its war of aggression in Ukraine. He also expects China to bring up Venezuela next in its Taiwan rhetoric.
In their analysis, Chatham House researchers also highlight Iran and estimate that its leadership is now worried. Researchers emphasize that they now know that the United States will find a way to change power if it wants to.
Trump already warned on Friday that the United States might intervene in the situation in Iran. The Iranian leadership immediately reacted with harsh counter-threats.
Europe’s reaction is astonishing
Director of Eurasia Group, which analyzes political risks, respected security policy researcher, professor Ian Bremmer describes the attack on Venezuela as a significant victory for Donald Trump, but also a warning and a dangerous precedent.
With all this in mind, Bremmer, director of the Italian International Policy Institute IAI Nathalie Tocci and researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank Dionysus Cinderella marvel at the lackluster reactions of European political leaders.
The leaders of Germany and France, the largest EU countries, have emphasized the importance of avoiding political uncertainty in Venezuela. According to Bremmer, Tocci and Cenușa, it is a sign of weakness. In addition, it is estimated that the EU leadership wants to foster a dialogue connection with the United States. However, Nathalie Tocci points out that this is how the EU leaders harm Ukraine in particular, but also their own interests.