UOB raises Vietnam’s economic growth forecast to 7.5%

The latest report of United Overseas Bank (UOB) raised Vietnam’s 2026 growth forecast, after the Statistics Department announced that GDP in 2025 will reach 8.02%, the second highest in the period 2011-2025 and exceeding this bank’s forecast, at 7.7%.

According to Singapore Bank, the economic health in the last three months continues to dispel concerns about trade fluctuations. Thanks to solid production and exports, fourth quarter GDP increased by 8.46%, the strongest since 2009 and excluding 2021 due to Covid.

Foreign investor confidence is maintained, with realized FDI capital increasing sharply by 9%, reaching a record of 27.6 billion USD in 2025. Overall, UOB assesses that Vietnam’s economy has grown outstandingly, despite pressure from US tariffs.

“With a growth rate of 8% for the year, Vietnam enters 2026 with a solid foundation,” the report said. Currently, UOB’s forecast is the most optimistic among international organizations. IMF, World Bank, ADB or HSBC are forecasting less than 7%.

In 2026, Vietnam targets GDP growth of 10% or more, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and ensuring major balances of the economy.

Besides the outlook, UOB notes that the possibility of exports being under pressure, along with uncertainty about US tax policy, are risks that could hinder Vietnam’s GDP growth trajectory in 2026.

“The potential scenario is that export orders may decline as previously strong demand (frontloading) weakens and higher prices affect the purchasing power of US consumers, especially in 2026,” the report said.

Last year, VND was the third strongest currency in Asia, devaluing 3.1% compared to USD. This factor combined with a positive GDP outlook and existing inflationary pressures (average 2025 is 3.2%) leads to the possibility of the State Bank keeping the refinancing interest rate unchanged at 4.5% throughout 2026, according to UOB.