There was a last-minute change to the critical Greenland meeting: “Denmark has to raise the stakes”

At Wednesday’s meeting of the representatives of Greenland, Denmark and the United States, the division of military responsibility in the Arctic region and the long-standing demands of the United States regarding the status of Greenland are on the table.

According to the Reuters news agency, the meeting will begin in Washington at around 17:30 Finnish time.

Deputy director of the Foreign Policy Institute (Upi). Samu Paukkunen estimates that Denmark is trying to convince the United States of the adequacy of European solutions without the need to question Greenland’s status.

However, the task is difficult, as the United States has raised the profile of the meeting significantly. Foreign minister Marco Rubion in addition, the vice president also sits at the table J.D. Vance.

“The presence of the vice president of the United States and the hosting of the event is considered more challenging than a situation where discussions would be held with the foreign minister. Vance supports Trump’s positions very strongly,” says Paukkunen.

Former Prime Minister of Sweden Carl Bildt pointed out in X that Vance’s inclusion and leading role signals that the US is taking a tougher approach to Greenland than if Rubio pulled the meeting.

Upin Paukkunen is on the same lines as Bildt.

“My own understanding is that Denmark will have to increase its contributions even more, but the concern is that Denmark’s own investment alone will not necessarily get out of this situation.”

NATO does not offer an easy solution

According to Paukkunen’s assessment, NATO’s possible role will inevitably come up in the discussions, but the military alliance does not offer the United States an unambiguous solution to the security of the Arctic region.

“Operations carried out by NATO naval departments are always limited in time, because the same resources are also needed in other areas.”

According to Paukkunen, NATO’s current structures do not, as such, meet the demands put forward by the United States.

“There has also been talk about whether NATO would increase its own presence in the Arctic region in the form of an operation, but these solutions are not final.”

According to Paukkunen, the question is ultimately what is enough for Trump, and whether he expects NATO to have a more permanent presence in the Arctic region.

Greenland station

The situation is complicated by Greenland’s own position. According to Paukkunen, the island’s long-standing aspirations for independence collide with economic realities that cannot be ignored in the security debate.

“It is known that Greenland wants to become independent, but it does not have the financial resources to maintain the current standard of living on its own without external support.”

“Denmark annually covers a significant part of Greenland’s public expenditure, including specialized medical care and a large part of higher education.”

According to Paukkunen, the limited options increase the importance of external funding and superpower politics.

“The self-government of Greenland has been actively looking for solutions to solve the economic issue in such a way that full independence would be possible, but it is an exceptionally difficult equation.”

Great power politics tightens the situation

According to Paukkunen, China and Russia are closely monitoring the development of the Arctic region, although according to his assessment, Russia is not the clear winner of the situation.

“The tense situation will very likely lead to an increase in the Western military presence in the North Atlantic and the Arctic region. This would make it difficult for Russia to operate in the region.”

Paukkunen reminds that Greenland’s Minister of Economy Naaja Nathanielsen flashed the Financial Times last year in the interview As an alternative to China, if the United States or the EU do not finance Greenland’s projects more actively.

According to Paukkunen, the key thing is that there is a discussion and that Greenland itself is involved in the negotiations.

“It is very important that Greenland is involved in these discussions and that its future is not decided over it. At the same time, it is significant that the major European countries have come to support Denmark and show European unity.”