The dollar fell 40 pesos in ten days and the Central Bank bought US$ 687 million so far in January

The same trend was followed by both the wholesale dollar, which with $ 1.430 hit the lowest level since mid-November, like financials. So far this month the MEP has lost 0.6%, $ 1.472 and cash with liquid 0.3%, $ 1.520.

With the dollar going down, the one who casts the net and fishes is the president of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili. This Friday it made the second largest purchase in the last ten months and acquired US$ 125 million, on a day in which US$ 389 million were traded in the market.

Thus, the Central accumulates US$ 687 million on ten wheels, which is equivalent to a daily average of US$62 million so far in January.

The Central again demanded dollars in the market this month, after an absence of 9 months, since it had not intervened since the release of the stocks. Despite this appearance, the exchange rate continues to fall, while reserves reach US$ 44,607 million, an advance of US$ 3,442 million in the month.

For the consulting firm EPyCA, “without a doubt, the accumulation of reserves is a positive and necessary signal: the majority of market actors trust in the Government’s ability to maintain fiscal balance and contain the supply of pesos, but They still doubt the availability of dollars to meet the demand for foreign currency that there will be this year“.

Despite these doubts, the dollar continues to fall, thanks to the strategy carried out by the Central. “The BCRA is offering coverage at an implicit exchange rate lower than the official one, which encourages banks, funds and companies to channel their exchange exposure via debt in pesos. This implies transfer risks forward and concentrate maturities in pesos indexed to the exchange rate; It is a bet that in Argentina was always risky but that today is more credible than at any other time in the last decade and a half,” adds EPyCA.

“The deepening of the falls in dollars appears as the logical reaction to a Treasury that, in tandem with the Central Bank, was willing to sustain a contractionary monetary policy,” they explain from PPI. “The economic team gave a very strong signal with Wednesday’s tender: the bias of monetary policy will continue to be restrictive, in a context of scarce liquidity, which will keep interest rates high.”.

It is precisely this policy of high rates that takes the pesos and reduces demand on the dollar.

“The confirmation of the contractionary bias finally convinced economic agents to dismantle holdings in foreign currency”dice PPI.

At the same time, dollar income continues to flow. The liquidations of the agro-export sector reached US$143 million on Tuesdayaccelerating from an average of US$79.2 million in the five previous wheels.

At the same time, market data indicates that the purchase of dollars for hoarding is decreasing. The latest official data corresponds to November, when 1.1 million people bought foreign currency, taking US$ 1,597 million. The number is far from what happened in October when, in the heat of electoral uncertainty, 1.6 million people bought US$ 4,669 million.

“We expect that the trend level of hoarding will decrease, being able to reach a “cruising speed” similar to August purchases (US$ 3,000 million),” IOL pointed out. “Another factor to consider is what happens in January where the demand for pesos decreases, something seasonally negative for the exchange rate. However, in the current context where the real exchange rate increased 20% in the last 9 months and the economy had a shock of positive political confidence, Major shocks are not expected during the current month“they added.

However, they mentioned that “Volatility could occur closer to the end of the month with the impacts of the tourism balance and credit card payments. In the same sense, the BCRA could adjust the level of purchases according to the supply to avoid the real appreciation of the peso.”

While the Government manages to control the dollar and at the same time accumulate reserves, until now 2026 has not brought the decrease in country risk that it needs to refinance the US$18 billion of debt maturities that lie ahead this year. The country risk closed the week at 564 points, a drop of just 1.2% so far in January.

For the Adcap Grupo Financiero Research team, “until now, neither the recent pace of currency purchases nor the favorable conditions of the last repo operation have managed to substantially modify investor sentiment. Our perception is that the market remains comfortable with the current positioning and prices, and is waiting for clearer signs — most likely from a buyback offer or bond swap — before moving forward with more decisive moves.”