Births hit an all-time low in China

Agile cradles remain empty even in China. For the fourth consecutive year, the population of the second most populous country in the world – just over 1.4 billion inhabitants – has decreased: the birth rate has fallen to an all-time low, despite the introduction of policies designed to encourage people to have children. Because a higher birth rate also increases internal consumption.

The lowest figure since 1949

In the 2025 births dropped to 7.92 millionequal to 5.63 per 1,000 people, down 17% compared to 9.54 million in 2024. This is the lowest figure recorded since demographic surveys began in 1949. China’s National Bureau of Statistics estimates that the population has decreased by 3.39 million, to 1.405 billion, a faster decline than in 2024, while deaths have increased since 10.93 million in 2024 to 11.31 million last year.

The stop to the one-child policy

Ten years have passed since the Beijing government put an end to the one-child policy in 2016, launched in 1979 to contain the demographic explosion that characterized the Maoist era, when the country alone had reached a quarter of the global population. But, despite the easing of birth control policies, the demographic curve has not regained strength. Several factors have to do with it: economic and social.

Raising a child, especially in cities, involves a considerable expense. A report published in recent years by the YuWa Population Research Institute in Beijing found that the average cost of raising a child in China up to the age of 18 is 538,000 yuan (about 66 thousand euros), or more than 6.3 times the GDP per capita, compared to 4.11 times in the United States or 4.26 times in Japan.

Resilient economy

CNN underlines that the Chinese GDP, in line with 5% targets, demonstrates the economy’s resilience despite tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by the United States. Market analysts, however, remain concerned about weak Chinese household spending in a context of deflationary pressure and excessive dependence on exports to stimulate growth.

Another indicator of possible future births is also struggling: marriages fell by a fifth in 2024, the most drastic drop ever recorded, with over 6.1 million registered couples, compared to 7.68 million in 2023. The Chinese government in recent years has launched a series of policies to encourage birth rates by allocating, the Guardian recalls, 90 billion yuan (11 billion euros) to support its national subsidy program for childcare.

They were introduced a bonus equivalent to approximately 450 euros for each child under three years of age and tax relief related to maternity and paternity. Some measures have also triggered controversy such as the new 13% tax on contraceptives, including condoms, contraceptive pills and contraceptive devices, raising concerns about the possible increase in unwanted pregnancies and HIV infection.